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Gold suddenly encounters black week Once down, the U.S. dollar hit a multi-year low. U.S. dollars per ounce. Last week, about 100 million US dollars in the value of tracking precious metals were wiped out, the largest evaporation in market value since the beginning of the month. Today's avalanche may be just the beginning. No matter from the perspective of fundamentals, technology or sentiment, gold, silver and other precious metals are likely to usher in a magnificent downward trend.

The price of gold plummeted at the beginning of the week, and the Fed's interest rate hike was the culprit

At the beginning of this week, the price of gold plummeted by more than the US dollar and broke through the integer mark of the US dollar per ounce
< br/>.’s asset managers pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s attitude towards raising interest rates has made the gold market very nervous. We have long believed that gold has lost its safe-haven properties. There is no single factor that keeps investors holding gold right now.

Judging from this picture, the current downward trading volume of spot gold has gradually increased compared with the previous two weeks, and is the highest value in the year. It shows that gold is moving downward with heavy volume, and its downward momentum is very strong. At the same time, in conjunction with the further decline of these two lines, bearish sentiment on gold will continue to accumulate.

The brewing sentiment for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates mainly comes from Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen’s testimony before Congress on March 1. She said that if the economic situation develops as expected, it would be appropriate to raise interest rates at some time this year. The rate hike is expected to be gradual, but the specific pace depends on the speed of economic expansion, and the pace of tightening policy will be slower than the first rate hike. Timing is more important

Yellen also said that at the March meeting, most Fed officials expected that the interest rate hike would be gradual and the Fed would continue to improve the policy tools for raising interest rates.

Yellen emphasized that as the impact of the U.S. dollar exchange rate and oil prices subsides, the inflation rate will return to the target set by the Federal Reserve in the medium term, and she believes that inflation will eventually gradually return to the % target. In addition, U.S. consumers Spending has accelerated, indicating a return of confidence in buying big-ticket items.

Two factors determine the Federal Reserve’s decision. From now on, the decision is no longer mysterious

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will hold its monthly interest rate meeting next Wednesday and Thursday (May 3rd). It is very important to grasp the basic tone of the interest rate decision before the Fed meeting. However, the Fed basically gives some hints before the meeting, and these hints are often ignored by investors. Federal Reserve officials are about to enter a period of silence this Tuesday, so the Fed should pay special attention.

Cue a Federal Reserve Beige Book. The editor has mentioned many times that the Federal Reserve Beige Book, published before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, is an important basis for Federal Reserve officials to assess the U.S. economy. Usually, the Beige Book is released two weeks before the Federal Reserve's decision. At the same time, the Beige Book is also delivered to the homes of Fed officials for them to make an assessment of the U.S. economic situation after careful study.

The Beige Book report released by the Federal Reserve on Sunday showed that U.S. economic activity continued to expand from the middle of the month to the end of the month. Federal Reserve Banks in various regions said economic growth was moderate.

The Beige Book showed uneven manufacturing activity, reporting layoffs in the manufacturing and energy industries. Falling energy prices helped support spending in some areas, but spending was partially dragged down by a stronger dollar. Oil and gas drilling fell in four regions, and energy-related capital spending fell in some areas.

It was suggested that the two Feds were silent in their pre-term speeches. In order to maintain the relative independence of the Fed's monetary policy and reduce its impact on the market, the Fed will prohibit Fed officials from doing so in public one week before the meeting. Therefore, before the silence period, the speeches of Federal Reserve officials have very good guiding significance for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.