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However, the consolidation continues to this day. , the risk of gold breaking through consolidation and falling is increasing, especially after the speeches of many Federal Reserve officials at the Jackson Hole annual meeting of the central bank last Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said in his speech that the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has increased in recent months. His speech was not only interpreted by the market as a possible increase in interest rates this month, but also received support from Fisher, the second-ranking figure in the Federal Reserve. Fischer said Yellen's speech indicated that interest rates may be raised in March and that interest rates may be raised twice this year. In addition, many officials also revealed their hawkish stance. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve have also risen sharply, with interest rate futures suggesting that the probability of raising interest rates within the year has risen sharply from around % to nearly %. It can be seen that the return of interest rate expectations may make gold lose its appeal. Therefore, under the current stable market sentiment, investors are more likely to hold U.S. dollars whose income may grow rather than gold with no interest income, and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar will directly suppress Gold price in US dollars.
Therefore, if expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continue to rise and market risk appetite remains stable, gold may find it difficult to maintain its strength and decline to reduce its gains for the year. Of course, if interest rate hike expectations weaken again, gold may regain strong upward momentum.
From a technical point of view, the current line price is running above the short-term moving average, the hourly Bollinger Bands are gradually flattening, the macro indicators are low and the golden cross is increasing, and the two lines are gradually flattening. At the same time, the smart indicators have basically The repair is close to being completed, and the hourly line is forming a relatively obvious pressure level. As usual, the market is relatively cautious during the non-agricultural week, and the volatility will not be too large. At present, the lower support level has gradually moved up to the lower track. It is expected that the market will still be mainly volatile during the day.