Dalian Tonghui Commodity Trading Center

Dalian Tonghui Commodity Trading Center investment hotline, real-time market analysis, all market breakthroughs, professional investment solutions, accurate online orders, sincerely recruiting personal agents, the company represents the United States automatic data processing company announced on the evening of July 1st, Beijing time The number of employed people increased by 10,000, in line with market expectations. Small non-farm payrolls remained stable and increased, boosting the market's optimistic non-agricultural expectations, suggesting that new jobs in the United States are still strong, supporting earlier statements by Federal Reserve officials that the U.S. economy will soon reach full employment, and silver prices have been pressured downward.

In the first week of January, the silver price remained weak and fluctuated. The market is currently waiting for the non-agricultural data released in the evening. This non-agricultural data may determine the next direction of the silver price.

From the perspective of technical trends, silver prices have been weak since they began to fall from the previous high around $.USD/ounce, and finally moved to near the important integer mark of $.USD/ounce. With the arrival of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data to be released on March 1, the performance of both bulls and bears near this price will determine the next stage of silver's trend.

From the perspective of macro events, the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting held in Texas, USA, on the evening of October 1st has been the main focus of market attention recently, and the capital market has indeed been affected by Chairman Yellen’s speech. It’s been a roller coaster ride. Considering that the current loose monetary policies of global central banks are not obvious, investors are particularly concerned about the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate hikes. However, Chairman Yellen still adhered to the Fed's recent expectation management strategy and practiced Tai Chi at the meeting, which confused the market. The reason is that we believe that on the one hand, the Federal Reserve does not want the market's consensus expectations to have an excessive impact on the trend of the U.S. dollar, causing the global competitiveness of U.S. companies to decline. On the other hand, effective expectation management can also leave room for the Federal Reserve to implement more diverse monetary policies.

From the perspective of the market outlook, although we are still optimistic about the mid- to long-term trends of gold and silver, in the short term, silver prices will likely fall below the important support level of USD/oz and continue to oscillate downward. The main reason is that the U.S. economy has recently recovered strongly. Compared with the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve may announce an interest rate hike for the first time in the second half of the year. The current U.S. unemployment rate has dropped to .%, which is far lower than the Fed's .% The standard for raising interest rates makes it difficult for surprises to occur. In addition, according to calculations, the average monthly new non-agricultural employment population is more than 10,000 people, which is enough to maintain the current unemployment rate stable or even lower. Obviously, the aforementioned data is much higher than this, which is why many hawks Sources of official confidence. Recent data shows that inflation has not yet reached the % target, but this year's inflation level is higher than last year, and growth is getting better. This key premise is being realized step by step. On the other hand, the non-commercial net long position ratio of gold and silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange is still at a historically high level. However, as the precious metals have not reached new highs, this also shows that the upward power of the bulls is slightly insufficient. If the economic data in the United States is good, the price of gold and silver will fall. It is not ruled out that some long positions will stop their losses and leave the market, and the concentrated exit of the bulls may continue to squeeze the precious metals.

Judging from the above situation, the data that the Federal Reserve pays most attention to are getting better, and the economy is moving towards the two major goals of the Federal Reserve. This has made the market expect that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is gradually increasing in the near future, and it will inevitably There will be some suppression on precious metals.

According to the recent economic data released by the Federal Reserve, it is still very likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once during the year, and the specific time for raising interest rates may be in March this year. This also means that the market may feel stressed before the Sword of Damocles drops.

However, it is worth noting that if the dollar trend is too strong due to market expectations, the Federal Reserve will still carry out expectation management and suppress the market’s interest rate hike expectations through public speeches, which will also cause the market to oscillate repeatedly. . Finally, given the uncertainty of global economic recovery and the existence of various risk events, long-term investors will still find gold below the US dollar per ounce and silver below the US dollar still very attractive.