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Investment hotline Morii explained that efforts to cut costs in most cases should be seen as a positive sign that the preparations are being made for another rise in oil prices. But instead oil traders seemed to interpret it as additional bad news.
Morii said that the correlation between the stock market and the crude oil market is very high, but he is not sure that there is a basic logic between the two.
This year, Brent crude oil prices have fallen by more than % after rebounding from the lows in mid-month. The latest price is around US$/barrel.
The pan-European Stoxx Oil & Gas index has managed to avoid the heavy blow from oil prices, slipping just 0.5% since January 2020. But this year it also reflects well on the volatility in the Brent crude oil market. fluctuation.
Morii said stock traders blamed falling oil prices for dragging down the stock market, while crude oil traders were surprised by the decline. The reason for the decline in the stock market is that the share prices of crude oil companies are falling. The current market situation is not very healthy because the stock market and the crude oil market interact with each other.
Risks in the banking system are high, and global stock markets are plummeting
To simplify things, we use the simplest logic and the most straightforward thinking: when risks in the banking system are high, it is a major negative for the stock market:
Europe Banking system risks are about to explode.
The stock market decline in the oil market for companies with high banking system risks has normalized
This has also dragged down the rise in risks in the U.S. banking system:
The stock market decline in the oil market for companies with high banking system risks has normalized
Merged further causing the collapse of global stock markets.
Forstra (B), a partner at Verde Partners (r), said that the stock market has been consolidating throughout the year and looking for the next breakthrough direction. Although it is a bit illogical, the situation in the crude oil market does affect the trend of the stock market.
Forstra also said that the biggest question in the market itself is: whether oil prices will take the worst due to the global economic slowdown or whether the global economy can stimulate oil prices to rise.
Risks in the global banking system are high, and stock markets and commodities continue to plummet. In 2017, George (r), a voting member of the Federal Reserve, strongly advocated that the U.S. economy was strong enough and the Federal Reserve would further raise interest rates, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve should adhere to the path of gradual interest rate increases. The meeting of oil-producing countries continues to rumor that coordinated production cuts will continue to be difficult to produce. Well-known financial commentators criticized the theory that oil prices have bottomed out.