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Some analysts say that one of the reasons why international oil prices are turbulent this time is that most people believe that there will not be a real war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. More importantly, however, the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices no longer exists.
The shale gas boom in the United States and C's refusal to cut oil production resulted in an oversupply of crude oil, which led to the decline in international oil prices that began in the middle of the year. "If there was no oversupply problem, oil prices would go crazy," said Smith, director of commodity research at Energy Market Data and Consulting. &r
Other observers believe that oil prices may be lower, and the recent conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has reduced the chances of C member countries agreeing to reduce production. C Caferro of a geopolitical risk consulting firm said,
Saudi Arabia and Iran are unlikely to cooperate with other members to support oil prices. Therefore, crude oil prices may fall even lower. &r
Last month, a comprehensive agreement was reached on the Iranian nuclear issue. The West gradually lifted sanctions on Iran, and Iran hopes to gradually adjust its oil exports. Iranian officials have repeatedly called on C to leave room for the country's oil increase, saying they would increase exports once sanctions against Iran's oil industry are lifted. Some analysts say that at this time, Saudi Arabia is obviously not willing to help increase oil prices.
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