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Since late March, short-term capital costs in the domestic currency market have begun to rise. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have increased pressure on the RMB to depreciate. Therefore, deleveraging and supporting the exchange rate have become the future policy direction of the Central Bank of China. Since late March, the central bank has successively restarted Tianhe Tianhe reverse repurchase, pushing the short-term capital cost of the money market higher. The weighted interest rate of interbank Tianhe repurchase in May rose to a high of more than a year and a half. .
The Federal Reserve is still guiding the market with interest rate hikes, but the People's Bank of China has already raised interest rates in disguise. Analysts said that because there is no pressure on economic growth, the pressure on RMB depreciation has increased before the Fed's interest rate hike window. Therefore, deleveraging and supporting the exchange rate have become the main goals of the Central Bank of China.
As China’s D growth rate has stabilized at .% for a consecutive quarter, hitting a new high since the beginning of the year, the pressure for RMB depreciation has increased before the U.S. interest rate hike window, and the focus of monetary policy has begun to undergo subtle changes: rising short-term interest rates will It helps to restrain banks from increasing leverage for profit while providing support for the people's exchange rate.
Ming Ming, director of fixed income research at CITIC Securities (, 国产吧) and a former employee of the Monetary Policy Department of the People’s Bank of China, also believes that there are both pressures from exchange rates and deleveraging requirements when talking about recent changes in monetary policy. Monetary policy obviously cannot be too loose, so the central bank's attitude is very clear. Whenever long-term interest rates have fallen significantly since last month, the central bank will take action to push it back.
Obvious analysis shows that the central bank cannot directly control asset prices, but by pushing up money market interest rates at the short end of the yield curve, the profit margin for deploying long-term bond assets with leverage will narrow, and the central bank is considering The inclusion of off-balance sheet financial management in broad credit audits also reflects the need for deleveraging.
Data from China Coin Network shows that the monthly transaction volume of pledged repos in the inter-bank market is one trillion yuan, down % from the historical high of nearly one trillion yuan per month. Monetary policy fine-tuning has promoted the initial results of de-leveraging in the financial market. .
On Wednesday, the weighted interest rate for maturity repurchases closed at .%, after once soaring to a high of .% on the previous month. On Thursday, daily interest rates continued to fall slightly. The People's Bank of China used open market manipulation to reverse repurchase 100 million yuan, with a net withdrawal of 100 million yuan. The cumulative net withdrawals for two consecutive days reached 100 million yuan, indicating that the central bank accidentally pushed the currency market further downward.
Yang Yuting, chief economist of Greater China at ANZ Bank in Hong Kong, pointed out that the central bank has begun to tighten selectively. The central bank does not want to adjust the benchmark interest rate to affect the capital cost of the economy as a whole, but selectively tightens in order to Beware of bubbles, such as those in currency and bond markets with excess liquidity. Now, the authorities will focus more on cutting overcapacity and deleveraging.
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