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On May last week, officials from the world's major oil-producing countries met in Doha, the capital of Qatar, to discuss the details of the production reduction agreement. Some optimistic messages were sent out, thus increasing market expectations for a production reduction agreement.
Introduction to the holding unit
Yangtze River Economic United Development Group Co., Ltd., referred to as Yangtze United Development Group, is sponsored by the governments of the four central cities of Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing and the Bank of Communications, together with other cities along the Yangtze River. Jointly established with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, it is an investment company engaged in cross-regional investment and development in the Yangtze River Basin and other regions. It is an important carrier for promoting the coordinated development of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. It is also one of the largest pilot enterprises approved by the State Council. Headquarters Located in Shanghai. The first chairman of the group was Dai Xianglong, the former governor of the People's Bank of China.
Changfa Group Changjiang Investment Industrial Co., Ltd. was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the day of the year. It completed the share-trading reform in 2011 and is an industrial listed company with modern comprehensive logistics as its main business.
The company complies with the strategic requirements of the 11th Five-Year Plan of the State and Shanghai Municipal Government on focusing on the development of modern logistics industry, relying on the logistics e-commerce platform covering the global logistics service network, and its business functions include international freight public information platform, domestic express market Internal freight, etc. The company's leading modern logistics enterprise, Shanghai Land Freight Trading Center, is the only government-authorized public information platform for road freight in Shanghai. The company relies on its powerful public information platform electronic information system network and numerous agencies in the Yangtze River Basin and overseas to provide a full range of logistics supporting and value-added services.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Friday that the Doha oil talks were progressing smoothly.
Russian Energy Minister Novak said on Friday that the meeting with Saudi Oil Minister Falih was constructive. Russia's position is getting closer and closer. Freezing birth is one option. Russia is ready to limit production and ready to join the deal. It is certain that an agreement will be reached at the meeting on March 1st. The United States is a key factor in adhering to the agreement. If major oil-producing countries do not increase production, this will help the oil market achieve a balance between supply and demand.
Iran said on Friday that it was very optimistic about an OPEC agreement.
Iraq’s Oil Minister Aru Aibi said on Friday that Iraq and oil-producing countries have made some progress in eliminating differences between them, and he is now optimistic about the production reduction agreement.
Algeria’s Energy Minister even stated on Friday that crude oil production may be frozen at the level of 10,000 barrels per day. We are preparing for the Vienna talks and will not renege on the results of the Algeria conference.
These news revealed optimism about reaching an agreement on production reduction, thereby enhancing the market's expectations for reaching an agreement on production reduction. In addition, at the Doha meeting, it was proposed to limit Iran’s oil production to about 10,000 barrels per day. However, Iran has yet to respond.
From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the latest data released by U.S. oil services company Baker Hughes Br showed that the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs increased in the week of March, the largest weekly increase in years, with the total number refreshing by nine. The new monthly high was also the first weekly increase in the past week. Huitong Finance analysts believe that judging from the recent changes in the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs, the number of U.S. drilling rigs is generally recovering, indicating that U.S. crude oil production may become active.
From the perspective of market linkage, a stronger U.S. dollar will usually put pressure on international oil prices priced in U.S. dollars. Last week, several Federal Reserve officials gave speeches one after another, including several committee members and Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen. Their speeches all hinted that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next month, allowing the market to reach a comprehensive consensus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. . Thus, adding momentum to the dollar's rise.
In addition, because the market expects that US President-elect Trump will increase fiscal spending and increase US inflation after taking office, US Treasury yields will rise, and the US dollar will also strengthen. Huitong Finance's Yihuitong market software shows that the U.S. dollar index rose to a year-high last week, and U.S. Treasury bond yields are also at this year's high. Industry analysts expect this market impact to continue to ferment. In the coming week, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise and the dollar will continue to strengthen.
However, Morgan Stanley Investment Management's fixed income portfolio manager said that given the weakness of the Chinese economy, the British Brexit referendum and other uncertainties, the agency believes that the Federal Reserve is only likely to raise interest rates once this year, or is the month. r also said that market sentiment is unpredictable. If market sentiment is positive and high, then U.S. Treasury yields will increase rapidly, even better than expected, and the dollar will strengthen accordingly. If the U.S. is believed to remain in stagflation mode, U.S. Treasury yields will move lower and the U.S. dollar will weaken accordingly.
From a geopolitical perspective, it was reported on June 1 last week that Iran’s oil pipeline exporting oil from the Kirkuk oil field to Turkey was suspended due to power shortages. The pipeline's current export capacity is 10,000 barrels per day and 10,000 barrels per month. The oil field transports oil produced by Iran, including the Kurdish region, through Turkey's ports adjacent to the Mediterranean. Exports resumed only after the Kurdish autonomous region government and Baghdad reached a settlement in this month. Huitong Finance analysts believe that the interruption of crude oil supply may alleviate the pressure of oversupply in the oil market to a certain extent.
In terms of positions, the latest weekly report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that hedge funds and other fund managers reduced their net long positions in U.S. crude oil futures and options to zero in the week as of March.
Judging from market expectations, the Royal Bank of Canada predicts that a production reduction agreement will be finally reached at the formal meeting in Vienna in March, and this will be used to curb crude oil output and stabilize the oil market.
According to the latest survey released by Bloomberg on Friday, crude oil traders and analysts have turned bullish on oil price trends next week for the first time in more than a week. Among the gold traders and analysts surveyed, some were bullish, some were bearish, and some were flat.
However, according to Huitong.com’s observation, there are still many market analysts who believe that the probability of truly reaching an agreement to reduce production is low. Barclays Br Energy's head of commodity research said that major oil-producing countries appear to be working hard to reach an agreement to reduce production. However, he did not have high expectations for an eventual agreement on production cuts. It is also expected that a possible situation is to reach a superficial agreement, but this agreement will not change the current situation of oversupply in the oil market.
According to analysts, the world's major oil-producing countries will only vigorously advocate production cuts, but have not taken substantive actions. He believes that the market will eventually see through the essence of nothing more than empty cannons. And oil prices will once again be in disarray.
Market analysts do not expect that production cuts will actually be implemented, and the final result may be that crude oil production is frozen at a high level. The biggest concern in the market right now is U.S. shale oil producers. If oil prices are higher than USD/barrel, it may lead to a comeback by US shale oil producers, thereby exacerbating the pressure of oversupply in the oil market. He also predicts that oil prices may fall back to US$/barrel this year, rather than being at US$/bbl or above US$/bbl.
In addition, it is worth noting that due to the US Thanksgiving holiday this week, the U.S. Baker Hughes oil drilling total report, originally scheduled to be released on Saturday, April, Beijing time, has been moved forward to April, Beijing time. Investors need to pay close attention.
Huitong Finance Yihuitong market software shows that crude oil is quoted in US dollars/barrel and Brent crude oil is quoted in US dollars/barrel in Beijing time.
Yangtze United Gold Medal Account Opening Consultant Xiao Zhang’s phone number/WeChat, I want you to know that there is a person in this world who will always be waiting for you. No matter when, no matter where you are, you know there will always be such a person.
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