Judging from the loan structure, social finance is gradually recovering and the financing scale is also preferred.

According to the latest data released by the central bank, at the end of the month, the balance was . trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of .%. The growth rate was . percentage points higher than the end of last month and . At the same time, the monthly new RMB loans were 100 million yuan, which was also higher than the median forecast of three institutions surveyed by Reuters. From the perspective of loan structure, medium and long-term loans and bill financing have grown rapidly. Li Qilin, head of fixed income research at Minsheng Securities, analyzed that the increase of 100 million yuan in residents' short-term credit may be related to the flow of some consumer credit into the stock market. The increase in residents' medium and long-term loans of 100 million yuan continues to maintain high growth, which corresponds to the continued warming of real estate sales. The new medium and long-term loans of financial enterprises increased by 100 million yuan. On the one hand, due to the concentrated introduction of stable growth, the demand for medium and long-term credit increased. On the other hand, to ensure the demand for projects under construction, short-term credit in the past was replaced by medium- and long-term non-financial credit. Corporate short-term loans increased by 100 million yuan, bill financing increased by 100 million yuan, and the bill market volume increased and prices fell. This may be due to the increased demand for short-term liquidity by companies for short-term inventory replenishment.
The total social financing data also continues to recover. The monthly social financing scale increased by . trillion yuan, 100 million yuan more than the previous month. The increase in the scale of social financing in the first half of the year was . trillion yuan, which was basically the same as the average level of the same period in the past six years and . trillion yuan less than the same period last year.
While the scale of social financing has grown, the structure has also been optimized, and off-balance sheet financing has shrunk significantly. Data from the central bank show that in the first half of the year, the real economy financed a total of 100 million yuan in the form of entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills, which was . .percentage points. Among them, entrusted loans increased by 100 million yuan, which was 100 million yuan less than the same period last year. Trust loans increased by 100 million yuan, which was 100 million yuan less than the same period last year. Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased 100 million yuan, which was 100 million yuan less than the same period last year.
The sharp shrinkage in off-balance sheet financing is partly related to the increased awareness of financial risk prevention and the intensification of financial supervision. A large amount of off-balance sheet business of financial institutions has been transferred to on-balance sheet. This structural adjustment can reduce financing risks to a certain extent, shorten the financing chain, and reduce corporate financing costs. It will be conducive to the stable operation of financial institutions and enhance the role of financial institutions in the real economy. financial support. Sheng Songcheng, director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, said.
Continuous RRR cuts and interest rate cuts have boosted the recovery
Industry insiders say that the improvement in data is inseparable from various policies to stabilize growth. The growth rate has rebounded month by month from the historical low of .% in March, and the growth rate has rebounded by . and . percentage points respectively. This has a lot to do with the continuous RRR and interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China. Sheng Songcheng said.
One of the reasons for the rebound in growth is the year-on-year increase in various loans, resulting in an increase in derived loans. Sheng Songcheng pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the country has intensified its policies to stabilize growth, and financial institutions have increased lending accordingly, especially medium and long-term loans and bill financing. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 million yuan year-on-year. Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 million yuan year-on-year. Bill financing increased by 100 million yuan, an increase of 100 million yuan year-on-year.
In addition, the RRR cut has increased the money multiplier, enhanced currency derivation capabilities, and the money supply has increased accordingly. Data show that this year to April, the money multiplier has risen for four consecutive months, rising from .
The RRR cut also increased the supply of funds to the banking system, increasing banks' willingness to lend and reducing the excess reserve ratio. Sheng Songcheng said that the excess reserve rate dropped from .% per month to .% per month, a decrease of .00 percentage points.
Interest rate cuts have also stimulated loan demand to a certain extent. From last month to January this year, the central bank cut interest rates four times, cumulatively lowering the one-year loan benchmark interest rate of financial institutions by 0.00% and the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate by 0.00%.
The People's Bank of China's continuous interest rate cuts have guided market interest rates to gradually decline, reducing financing costs for the real economy and increasing loan demand. Sheng Songcheng said. The central bank used the scale of social financing to comprehensively assess the comprehensive cost of financing the real economy through various financial instruments such as loans, bonds, and stocks. Data show that as of March 2019, the overall financing cost of enterprises was .%, down 1 basis point from the first half of the year and down 1 basis point from the same period last year. Specifically, the financing costs of enterprises of different sizes have declined to varying degrees, with small and micro enterprises falling at a higher rate than large and medium-sized enterprises.
The rebound in growth is also related to the acceleration of fiscal spending. Sheng Songcheng said that since the beginning of this year, my country's proactive fiscal policy has gradually taken effect and fiscal expenditures have increased, resulting in a corresponding decrease in fiscal deposits and an indirect increase in general deposits. Data show that in this month, fiscal deposits increased by 100 million yuan, a decrease of 100 million yuan from the previous month.
Looking ahead, the tone of monetary easing will not change
Regarding future monetary policy, Sheng Songcheng said that the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, pay more attention to appropriate tightening and pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, so as to ensure stable economic growth and structure. Adjustments provide ample liquidity.
The central bank’s rhetoric has not changed significantly. In the opinion of industry insiders, although financial data has shown overall signs of improvement due to the continued impact of previous policies, the foundation for economic stabilization and recovery is not solid, and the tone of loose money is will not change.
Zhang Chao, a researcher at the International Monetary Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said that although the monthly loan structure has improved, bill financing continues to increase. On the basis of an increase of 100 million yuan per month, the monthly increase has increased by 100 million yuan again, indicating that banks Confidence in medium- and long-term loans is still weak, and banks' reluctance to lend has not fundamentally reversed. In the short term, banks' reluctance to lend and poor credit creation channels will not substantially improve. The supporting role of monetary policy is stronger than its stimulating role. Until new endogenous economic growth points are nurtured, the situation of poor credit creation will continue. .
Li Qilin also said that overall, the recovery of real estate sales volume and price, the centralized introduction of measures to stabilize growth, and the short-term inventory replenishment behavior of enterprises may have promoted the recovery of financial data. But in the medium term, the economy is in a state of infrastructure support + overcapacity reduction in traditional sectors + a lack of new growth points. The short inventory replenishment cycle will not last long. The coexistence of banks' weak risk appetite and entities' weak willingness to increase leverage should be a long-term phenomenon. , it is difficult for financial data to improve for more than one quarter. Against this background, monetary easing will not shift in the second half of the year, and liquidity regulation will shift more to long-term and directional regulation, mainly through RRR cuts and distortion operations.
The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations through interest rate bidding on a daily basis, with a term of 10 days and a transaction volume of 100 million yuan. The winning interest rate is maintained at .%. The operation scale of 100 million yuan has been reduced compared with the operation volume of 100 million yuan since the restart at the end of the month.
Huang Wentao, chief analyst of CITIC Construction Macro Bonds, said that the scale and frequency of open market operations in the short term and the small fluctuations in capital prices are not enough to serve as a basis for judging the direction of monetary policy. He pointed out that although the month-on-month increase has increased from the previous month, it is still only .%. The month-on-month growth will be around .%. The negative value for the whole year has increased again, which shows that the real economy has a long way to get out of deflation and that monetary policy has the The necessity and possibility of continued easing.
Guangzhou Financing: