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'Yesterday, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly did not launch further easing policies, which reflects from the side that negative interest rates are not effective. Under such circumstances, the Bank of Japan may have run out of tricks. The failure of expectations caused the yen to rise sharply, driving the US dollar to plummet. The weak data made matters worse. The US dollar fell below the level and approached the previous low, and gold and silver took advantage of the momentum to rise. In terms of crude oil, bulls remain optimistic, ignoring the negative effects of excess inventory and the fact that most oil-producing countries except the United States and some Gulf countries are trying to increase production. Taking advantage of the renewed weakness of the dollar, oil prices continue to soar. This week's market focus is on the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. The Fed remains on hold on policy. The decision statement revealed a hawkish signal and reserved the possibility of at least one interest rate hike during the year. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly kept its existing policy unchanged, raising expectations for further easing. Failed. In terms of data, U.S. personal income may have increased slightly in March, while the core rose. In Europe, the EU zone's first-quarter growth rose to .3 from .3 in the previous period. Growth data in France and Spain both improved, while the UK fell back to .3 from .3 in the previous period. In Asia Pacific, Australia is likely to be flat in the first quarter. At present, the Federal Reserve has kept its interest rate policy unchanged as expected by the market. The April resolution statement revealed a hawkish signal, expressing confidence in the U.S. economy and concern about inflation indicators. The market believes that it is still not enough to reverse the expectation of a slowdown in interest rate hikes. However, during the year The probability of interest rate hikes still exists. The market has different opinions on the path of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. From monitoring, it can be seen that the opportunity to raise interest rates per year is , and the opportunity to raise interest rates monthly is 3. If the opportunity to raise interest rates rises, it will be negative for gold and silver in the short term, and vice versa, it will be good for gold and silver. The U.S. dollar index fell sharply and approached the previous low after falling below the level. Gold and silver may be supported by dips. The U.S. ten-year bond yield fluctuated and fell, and gold and silver were expected to be supported by dips. The world's largest silver holdings have increased many times before. Silver performs better than gold, or funds judge that silver's industrial cycle has shown signs of recovery and are optimistic about the market outlook. The news is mixed with bulls and bears, and silver prices need to be wary of significant fluctuations under the influence of unexpected news.
'Technical Analysis
' From a technical point of view, on the daily chart, silver prices closed on the positive line on the previous trading day, and bulls continued their upward trend. The US dollar fell sharply due to the surge in the yen, and oil prices fell sharply again. Show off your strength. It should be noted that due to the coexistence of silver's monetary attributes and commodity attributes, and the impact of fluctuations in gold and oil prices, silver is more likely to form a wide-ranging trend. In addition, the world's largest silver has recently increased its holdings again after waiting for a period of time, which may indicate that funds are once again optimistic about the market outlook. From a long-term perspective, the price of silver has not yet gotten rid of the bear market trend. From the hourly chart, the price of silver fluctuated repeatedly in the early stage. It broke through the downward trend and then fluctuated upward. The current high level is consolidating in a range. If industrial demand follows the recovery of the stock market, the U.S. dollar Continuing the downward trend, silver prices are expected to perform better than gold prices. The Federal Reserve decided to maintain its previous interest rate policy unchanged at its April interest rate meeting. The statement revealed a hawkish bias, but the market believed it was not enough to reverse expectations of a slowdown in interest rate hikes. Fed officials have different opinions on interest rate hikes. The future policy outlook still depends on Economic data shows that if the U.S. economic data is not satisfactory, silver prices are expected to rebound by taking advantage of the weak US dollar. On the contrary, they need to be wary of turning around and falling. The news is mixed with bulls and bears. The latest non-agricultural data clearly shows the strong resilience of U.S. economic growth. The market will pay close attention to future changes in inflation, wages, employment growth and other indicators. The probability that the Federal Reserve will adopt a radical monetary policy of continued tightening is very small. The commodity market is rising rapidly, and we are concerned that industrial demand for silver may be recovering. Therefore, it is recommended to follow the trend during the day, and mainly go long on dips or follow orders through the range.
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