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Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories once again rose to a record high, an increase of 10,000 barrels from last week, an increase of more than three times market expectations.
The data also shows that U.S. crude oil production continues to rise to 10,000 barrels per day, a new high in more than a year. This is further evidence that while China, Russia and other crude oil exporting countries are cutting production to absorb global crude oil inventories, the United States has significantly increased production to offset their efforts. After the data was released, U.S. crude oil fell more than % in the short term and fell to the lowest level in recent months.
Oil prices have traded in a USD-USD range over the past three months. All factors are believed to be helping oil prices break out of a three-month range, including a lack of cohesion among member states, a pessimistic tone from oil ministers at an energy conference in Houston and the impending seasonal maintenance of U.S. refineries.
Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Falih (-) warned at the energy conference on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia will only support intervention in the market for a limited time and will not sacrifice our own long-term interests to support others. Oil ministers held a final press conference that evening where they reiterated their commitment to the production cut deal. "Saudi Arabia has almost clearly warned that if everyone fails to cooperate or we find someone playing tricks, we will never become someone else's scapegoat," said the head of global energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service. &r
So far, Saudi Arabia has contributed the largest share of the production reduction agreement with other oil-producing countries, while Iraq, the second largest oil producer, has produced more than its monthly quota.
The US dollar can now be considered a target. If oil prices fall below that level, market watchers can expect oil ministers to discuss extending the six-month production cut agreement. They will meet again in March. If oil prices fall below the dollar, the possibility of an extension of the production cut agreement becomes greater, even if forced. Oil prices' gains on Thursday (early trading) may be temporary. One of the factors (putting pressure on oil prices) is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar driven by (expected) U.S. interest rate hikes. The surge in U.S. crude oil inventories will continue to weigh on oil prices. ANZ Bank said in a report that "coupled with the huge speculative long positions in the market, it is not surprising that oil prices have fallen sharply." &r
Crude oil silver operation strategy
From the daily level, crude oil turned downwards and broke through, and formed a dead cross. This also allowed us to clarify that a recent short trend indicator extended downwards and the stochastic indicator Spreading downward, however, there is currently a strong opening below to support us. We can boldly support the US dollar integer mark or even the previous low. Looking at the US dollar first-line chart, the technical indicators are all bearish. After the oil price plummeted, the lower space has opened. On the fundamentals, shorts gathered, so in the evening crude oil The trend does not say that it is definitely bearish, but chasing short at low levels is obviously too aggressive, so after a small rebound in the evening, we directly shorted the upper pressure position and focused on the US dollar area.
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