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On Monday (May 2), international crude oil prices continued to rise since OPEC reached an agreement to reduce production. It is said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold meetings in Vienna and Africa this Saturday (May 2). Countries meet to finalize a global crude oil production limit agreement. The first production reduction agreement since 2019 was reached last Wednesday (July 2), agreeing to reduce production by about 10,000 barrels per day starting from March 2020, thereby reducing global excess supply and boosting oil prices. The agreement also includes coordinated action with non-member Russia, the first of its kind this year. According to the current situation, the production reduction agreement implemented next year is only based on the oil production level at the end of the year. The oversupply situation in the oil market may continue, which will be a reason that will continue to affect the oil market next year. Oversupply in the oil market has caused oil prices to fall by half since the beginning of the year.
On Monday (July 2), Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform failed and Renzi announced his resignation. This also means that previous fears will come true. The Five-Star Party is expected to take power and promote Italy’s referendum on leaving the European Union. The EU is facing a disintegration crisis. The crude oil market will also face new crises. Although the final results of the Italian constitutional referendum and the Austrian presidential election have not yet been released, the outcome is already obvious. Preliminary vote counting showed that those opposed to the constitutional amendment had a large majority. Italian Prime Minister Renzi said he would take all responsibility for the failure and tendered his resignation. The disastrous defeat in the Italian referendum has given the Five Star Party hope to take power and push forward the Brexit referendum plan. If it comes to fruition, it also means that the EU will face the withdrawal of a second member state. Moreover, it was mentioned in the previous article that once Italy holds a referendum on leaving the European Union, it is very likely to succeed.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil
The single positive entity in the weekly chart of crude oil is relatively large. Judging from the continuation of the normal line combination, there will be a continuation after the big positive. Bulls are expected to diverge further this week. The monthly line is currently blocked. The monthly line is also suppressed by the previous high. It was briefly blocked and fell back last week. But the space adjustment is not big. And at the end of the week, it strongly recovered the space to step back. causing the daily chart to close higher. The daily chart is currently in the stage of gaining momentum to break high. The trend is bullish. First determine the trend and then look for entry points in small cycles. Short-term chart: The hourly chart was under pressure and pulled back near . last week, but it failed to fall continuously. The correction losses were regained in late trading. And it returned to the high point. So today is the key point. Last Friday's low. It is also the rising position on the hourly chart. Combined with the hourly chart, it rebounded from the downward trend and reached high again. The bulls are gaining momentum in the rising stage. Breakthroughs will accelerate. At the same time, it also drives the daily chart and continuous Yang. But the bulls want to continue to exert force. Can't break any lower today. Now the hourly chart has shot higher for the second time and has not yet broken through. If it does not break the high but falls below first, the short-term correction will be the first. It falls back in line with the small double top pattern. Therefore, the neckline is more critical. The current trend is to hold on. The low point is poised to break through the high point. After all, last Friday's closing price was higher, and the correction below the neckline today will be deeper. But the current pattern does not support deep callbacks. Therefore, bulls have a greater chance of an upward breakthrough. In terms of operation, we rely on the dividing point to make long-term breakthroughs on dips.
Crude oil operation suggestions:
, Aggressive. Nearby multiple orders will enter the market, steady. Nearby multiple orders will enter the market near the target. Make a judgment after breaking the position and stop the loss.
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