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Recently, the author Huang Junrui checked the OPEC member states that signed the production reduction agreement at the end of last year and fulfilled their commitments If the production is reduced, the production will be reduced by 10,000 barrels per day compared with the month. The implementation of OPEC's production cuts is better than market expectations, which shows that oil-producing countries are very determined to limit production and protect prices. In the context of a general downturn in the global economy, despite the threat from shale oil, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries jointly reducing production is the best way to rebalance the global oil market as soon as possible. The production reduction agreement has lifted the crude oil market out of decline, and oil prices have steadily strengthened. After tasting the sweetness, Iraq and Qatar have begun to request an extension of the production reduction agreement. The author Huang Junrui predicts that the international crude oil market will receive strong support during the production reduction agreement period in the first half of the year.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on March 3 showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 10,000 barrels to 100 million barrels in the week ending March 3, which was only 33,000 barrels lower than the all-time high set in March. The sharp increase in U.S. crude oil inventories is unexpected. As inventories are close to record highs, the market is beginning to worry about storage capacity issues. Coupled with the decline in refinery operating rates, U.S. crude oil inventories still tend to increase further, which will put pressure on the international crude oil market. With the current market focus on OPEC production cuts, the surge in inventories has not triggered market panic.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have always attracted much attention. The imbalance of economic development and the many uncertainties caused by Trump’s coming to power have made the monetary policy outlook increasingly confusing. Recently, the debate between hawks and doves has reappeared within the Federal Reserve, and differences on the issue of interest rate hikes still exist.
Author Huang Junrui concluded: After trading sideways for a period of time, the international crude oil market has gathered some downward momentum, and there is a possibility of downward correction in the short term. However, the production reduction agreement has improved market fundamentals, and the crude oil market is still optimistic in the medium and long term. Although U.S. crude oil production and the number of oil rigs continue to increase, the magnitude is relatively mild. If there is no short-term surge, it will not cause market panic. It is precisely because of concerns about the rebound in U.S. crude oil production that oil prices have not been able to stand above the US dollar/barrel. The author Huang Junrui predicts that the pattern of horizontal fluctuations will continue. It is expected that the price of Brent and Brent crude oil futures contracts will maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the next month. The long-term upward resistance levels are at US$/barrel and US$/barrel respectively, and the downward support levels are at US$/barrel and US$/barrel respectively.
Technical analysis of crude oil:
The daily double positive rebound recovered the lost ground at the beginning of the week. Sure enough, it fell at the beginning of the week and rose at the end of the week. Basically, it recovered the lost ground, allowing the weekly closing cross line to continue. . With this space intensity. It is currently just at a neutral level, with pressure above and support below. The space is temporarily locked in oscillation between. It rebounded from the low level in the hour and continued to rise, with almost no counterattack. Affected by drilling data in late trading, the market slightly pulled back, so the highs at the beginning of the week will still be suppressed. The author Huang Junrui expects the market to remain volatile in a wide range. On the hourly line, the market is trending towards a head and shoulders pattern, and there is a downside risk in the short term. To sum up, short-term trading is locked and range trading is enough. In terms of operation, the author Huang Junrui recommends selling high and selling low within the range. Be sure to control risks while also seizing profits.
Crude oil operation suggestions:
, .3 USD short, loss .3, target 3
, 3.. USD long, loss .3, target
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