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On Tuesday (month), crude oil prices continued to surge and rose by more than 10%, and continued to hit a new high record. As supply disruptions in the crude oil market once again showed their power, oil prices may be significantly boosted in the future. The market expects oil prices to rebound quickly to the US dollar.
As the crude oil market shifted from near saturation of inventories to supply exceeding demand earlier than expected, the bank raised its U.S. crude oil price forecasts for the second to fourth quarter and the full year across the board. The physical market for crude oil is finally starting to rebalance.
Nigeria’s oilfield facilities have recently suffered a series of armed attacks, causing the output of Africa’s largest crude oil producer to fall to a year low. The market expects that its output can only be restored after months. Its current daily output has dropped to nearly 10,000 yuan. bucket.
At present, crude oil prices continue to rebound sharply, and the supply and demand relationship in the crude oil market may have been balanced. A long-term recovery in oil prices is a foregone conclusion. It is recommended that investment should be cautious. Entering the U.S. dollar oil price range will cause the decline of U.S. domestic crude oil production to drop significantly, and may accelerate U.S. exploration and development activities, thus suppressing oil prices again. This force waxes and wanes. It should be noted that although oil prices rose sharply on Monday, there was a sharp decline in trading volume. Monday's trading volume was nearly the smallest of the past session.
The wildfires in Canada and the attack on crude oil facilities in Nigeria continue to stir up the market. The sharp shrinkage in trading volume on Monday may be due to the fact that long funds are in the observation stage after the position adjustment last week and are not yet willing to enter the market. (Or only a small amount of funds enter the market), and the increase may mainly come from the closing of short positions.
At the same time, the net short position of U.S. crude oil producers surged to the highest level since January. This further illustrates that U.S. shale oil manufacturers are seizing the opportunity when oil prices are close to the US dollar range to hedge future production.
Judging from the daily chart, after breaking through a new high yesterday, it was strongly suppressed by the upper side, and the upward momentum was insufficient. The market opened in the morning and fell back to adjust. The Bollinger Bands opened upward. The line hit a new high yesterday and broke through the Bollinger Bands upper track. Now There is a downward correction at the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands. The line continues to be positive all the way up with the daily moving average. The daily moving average below is strongly supported. After the correction, it is expected to rise again. The red energy column of the indicator increases in volume. The fast and slow double-line bulls diverge upward. It is in the overbought zone. There is Pullback trend. Judging from the four-hour chart, the daily moving average support line has been moving higher and hit new highs many times. The Bollinger Band upper track has been strongly suppressed to prevent it from rising. Yesterday evening, it set a new high and broke the Bollinger Band track. There will be a correction within the day. It is expected to go down to near the daily moving average and be supported by the daily moving average and then rise again. The indicator speed line in the attached picture is bullish, the red energy column is sharply increasing in volume, the third line is in the overbought zone, and it has slowed down, and the bullish trend has slowed down. The market has been in a unilateral upward trend since yesterday, and the upper resistance has broken through time and time again. As the saying goes, the top does not indicate the top, and the bottom does not indicate the bottom. For unilateral market conditions, just follow the trend. The intraday trend is still optimistic about the upside. Pay attention to the support point of stepping back on the 3 line. It is not recommended to chase the long position at high levels. The indicators of each cycle are also optimistic about the upward trend
. For the first time, multiple orders have entered near 3, the loss point, target 3, and the break is expected
. Unexpected drop Break, rebound near empty, loss point, target
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