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Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen has just concluded her speech and Q&A in Philadelphia. This speech is the last opportunity for Fed officials to explain the Fed's careful thinking to the outside world before entering a period of silence.
In her speech, Yellen said that the U.S. jobs report for the month was disappointing and worrying, but don't read too much into the one-month data. Other labor market indicators were more positive, such as initial job applications, which performed well. Average hourly earnings also increased. Raising confidence that the U.S. economy is on the verge of overcoming labor market weakness.
However, Yellen still expressed concerns about U.S. labor productivity. Although the U.S. labor market has improved significantly, the growth rate of D lags far behind labor market indicators. These two data together reflect that the rate of improvement in labor productivity in the United States in recent years has been unusually slow. The average annual growth rate since August 2019 has been less than .%.
As for raising interest rates, Yellen said that the current monetary policy stance is generally appropriate and that the positive economic factors of slight easing outweigh the negative factors. The Fed is paying close attention to signals about inflation expectations. Since the beginning of this year, crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded from historical lows, and the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies has remained stable and is no longer appreciating. These two factors, coupled with the continued consolidation of the job market, believe that U.S. inflation will gradually return to the target level of %. For the Federal Reserve, the price trends of crude oil and the US dollar are unpredictable. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has no preset path. If conditions are met, a gradual increase in interest rates may be appropriate.
Federal Reserve policymakers will gather in Washington in the next few days to consider whether to implement the first interest rate increase since last month. Before Yellen's speech, market speculation suggested that Yellen would probably close the door to raising interest rates this month. However, in order to preserve the possibility of raising interest rates this month, she had to deviate slightly and continued to talk about raising interest rates in the next few months. Otherwise, previous efforts to revive market expectations for a possible mid-year interest rate hike will be in vain.
Crude oil (ferrous asphalt) continued to fluctuate at a high level yesterday. After last week’s negative line, the market is expected to start to correct, but the weekly line is still rising. This time, not only did it not fall to the mid-term line support position, but the market stabilized at a high level, stabilized the short-term line, and once again In such a state, the crude oil price is shrinking. It is facing a correction during the day, stabilizing and rising first. It cannot be ruled out that this month it will rush first and the impact will be above the point. Then it will fall after waiting for resistance. The daily line is the standard. Currently, the focus is nearby, which is the key position. If it falls below, first go low and make new highs, then wait until it is blocked before you can consider shorting. According to the operating rhythm, this month emphasizes the long pattern of rising high and falling back, which is the norm. If it really wants to turn down, I don’t think it will take at least two months of high consolidation. Things have become a fact. U.S. crude oil production has resumed. Iran's oil production has far exceeded expectations, but crude oil has remained around. The focus is on the process of destocking. Demand is boosting crude oil. The long-term outlook is bullish and the medium-term outlook is flat. It is recommended that everyone continue to go long on dips first!