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Yellen is playing Tai Chi as the U.S. dollar recuperates and the supply of U.S. dollars is disrupted and oil prices are not tired of it
The specific content of Yellen's speech from the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. jobs report last month was disappointing and worrisome, and it was important not to over-interpret one month's data and other labor market indicators were more positive. The economic positives outweigh the negatives. A gradual increase in interest rates may be appropriate if conditions are met. Job market conditions are so favorable and its constraints have largely been lifted that wage growth may finally accelerate.
In terms of monetary policy, Yellen pointed out that there is no preset path for monetary policy. The overall current stance of monetary policy is slightly loose. In a normal economy higher interest rate levels are appropriate. The current normal level of interest rates is quite low. It believes that the neutral interest rate will rise over time and interest rates will gradually increase but did not give an exact time. Only in rare circumstances will the Fed give special guidance and it has repeatedly stated that there is no preset path for interest rates. All the Fed can do is explain what factors affect the path of interest rates. The Fed continues to react to new data. Special guidance is appropriate in major crises, but the era of special interest rate guidance is an abnormal period.
In terms of inflation, Yellen expects the inflation rate to rise to % over time. Unless oil prices resume their earlier declines or the dollar continues to climb, inflation will climb back to % in the next one to two years. For the Fed, both crude oil and U.S. dollar price trends are unpredictable.
In terms of external risks, Yellen said that China faces considerable challenges in its economic structural adjustment. It is known that China faces many challenges in rebalancing its economy to domestic demand and consumption. A vote to leave the EU could have huge repercussions for the UK. Yellen stressed her cautious optimism that overseas headwinds facing the U.S. economy are gradually fading.
Yellen is playing Tai Chi, the supply of U.S. dollars is recuperating, and oil prices are disrupted.
In addition to Yellen, other Fed officials have made remarks about raising interest rates. On Monday, the three Fed officials, Bullard, Rosengren and Lockhart, all expressed their views on gradually raising interest rates in the future, but they basically ruled out the possibility of raising interest rates this month.
St. Louis Fed President Bullard, a more neutral voting member, pointed out that it is appropriate for the Fed to gradually raise interest rates in the future. The slowdown in monthly employment growth data is an acceptable surprise. It seems that the era of job growth of 10,000,000 per month is over. Although monthly business hiring was weak, the labor market remained very strong. The Fed's decision to raise interest rates should be based on good economic conditions. Be open to the outcome of the monthly meeting without prejudging.
Rosengren, a dovish vote member of the Boston Fed President, also made remarks about raising interest rates. He said he expected economic growth to be sufficient to support gradual interest rate increases. There is evidence that inflation is heading towards the % target. Monthly jobs report disappointed. Although recent data has been mixed, monetary policy should gradually tighten. The United States is currently at its estimated full employment level. Optimistic about U.S. retail sales and consumption The Federal Reserve is getting closer to an environment in which it can raise interest rates.
Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, a non-voting member this year, said the Fed will raise interest rates twice this year. Future policy decisions still depend on data. Business investment is affected by uncertainty. The lack of change in one's own views on the economy despite poor monthly employment data may reflect a slowdown in employment at full employment. The U.S. economy is still growing at a moderate pace and the Fed is watching how things develop in the coming weeks. Fed policies will continue to stimulate the economy.
Market expectations for the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Hilsenrath of the Federal Reserve News Agency believes that the issue of raising interest rates will almost certainly not be discussed at the March-July meeting. There is a possibility of raising interest rates this month, but this possibility is very small because Fed policymakers will not receive more economic data by then to re-determine whether the economy is expanding. Some officials may prefer to wait until the next month's meeting before considering a rate hike if the U.S. economy recovers this summer.

The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates before the election. The bank believes that the latest U.S. non-farm data points to widespread weakness in the economy. Although the employment participation rate increased at the beginning of this year, it is easy to fall back in the summer. Or the market can ignore the current bottom line on the grounds that the household sub-data is not as reliable as the corporate sub-data. The growth rate of D in the second quarter is still around %, but it also shows signs of lack of momentum. The Fed's interest rate hike before the election will undoubtedly add another obstacle.
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