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With the Federal Reserve meeting As risk events such as interest rates and the Brexit referendum approach, the market's risk aversion sentiment rises. Last week, U.S. Treasury yields hit a new low since the beginning of the year. German and Japanese government bond yields both hit record lows. Safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen also strengthened. Analysts believe that in the face of multiple uncertainties, investor risk appetite may be suppressed and financial markets will enter a wait-and-see mode.
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ddd -rd/ ----d:< ddd safe-haven assets strengthen
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ddd -rd/ ----d The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting this week and the UK will hold a referendum on Brexit next week. Intensive risk events have caused investors to flock to safe havens. Last week, the sovereign bond yields of developed economies such as the United States, Germany, and Japan hit new lows. The yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds fell to a new low since 2016. The yield on 10-year German government bonds once fell to .%, a historical low. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds hit a record low. The Japanese government bond yield has reached a record low of .% and has further dipped below the zero level. It is currently -.%.
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ddd -rd/ ----d Gold prices rose sharply. As of the close of the month, the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures closed at an ounce. The US dollar basically returned to the beginning of the month. The price surged more than % from the previous week near the high level set in more than a year, achieving gains for two consecutive weeks. In addition, safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have also strengthened.
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ddd -rd/ ----d The market's risk aversion has increased significantly, temporarily shelving the hope of U.S. stocks reaching record highs. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply last Friday. Among them, the S&P index fell by .%, the Dow Jones index fell by .%, and the Nasdaq index fell by .%. International oil prices corrected, and New York crude oil futures prices returned to below the US dollar per barrel.
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ddd -rd/ ----d Brown, head of sovereign capital markets at Citigroup, said stock markets were falling as investors flocked to high-quality assets in fixed-income securities. Prices are soaring and there are real concerns about global growth.
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ddd -rd/ ----d Earlier this month, investors were concerned about the Fed's next few jobs after the Labor Department released the worst employment data in nearly six years. Expectations for a monthly interest rate hike have dropped sharply, and concerns about slowing economic growth in the United States and around the world have intensified. What's more important is that the latest poll released by the UK's Brexit referendum, which will be held on October 1, shows that the support rate for leaving and remaining in the EU is %:%, which puts further pressure on the already fragile market sentiment. According to a previous survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Brexit has become the most worrying tail risk in the market, prompting investors to cut their exposure to the British stock market to the lowest level in more than seven years in March.
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ddd -rd/ ----d:< ddd market enters wait-and-see mode
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ddd -rd/ ----d At present, market analysts are cautious about the trend of short-term risk assets. Netherlands-based asset manager Robeco believes uncertainty has loomed over the Brexit referendum and other major market events, leading to concerns that a Brexit could lead to market chaos and financial markets move into a wait-and-see mode. Robeco's investment strategy remains neutral on equities.
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ddd -rd/ ----d However, Robeco analyst Lucas also mentioned that structural factors such as rising crude oil prices and the U.S. economy are still relatively optimistic. . Long-term structural factors will also bring hope to the market as concerns subside. The current market sentiment is normal.
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ddd -rd/ ----d Kumar, head of interest rate strategy at Credit Agricole Bank, believes that if the UK decides to leave the EU, the Bank of England may further relax policy, which will lead to Treasury yields fell further. Analysts at Citibank also said that if the result of the referendum on May 23 is that the UK finally leaves the EU, the market's rising expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England may accelerate capital outflows, and the UK government bond yield may test the 10% level. On the contrary, if the UK eventually stays in the EU, the Bank of England There is an opportunity to start thinking about raising interest rates as soon as this year, when the UK government bond yield may rise back above .%.
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ddd -rd/ ----d ANZ strategist Hines believes that the decline in expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the Brexit referendum will promote avoidance. Insurance demand has become a key factor driving gold prices higher in the future. Safe-haven demand will push gold prices back to dollar-per-ounce levels. If Britain does leave the European Union, the pound will fall sharply, bringing volatility to the market and investors will seek safety.