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Current market situation of crude oil
Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have rebounded by more than % from the lows after the monthly decline. Although the OPEC production freeze meeting in October failed, the supply and demand fundamentals are good for oil prices. News continues to add to the delay of the Federal Reserve. The continued decline in the U.S. dollar index due to interest rate hikes provided support for rising oil prices. Crude oil prices hit a six-month high
China’s demand for crude oil imports has increased significantly recently. Taking Qingdao as an example, in the first quarter, Shandong port imported 10,000 tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of .%. Industry insiders revealed that after the country liberalized crude oil import qualifications and the right to use imported crude oil, Shandong local refining companies' imported crude oil showed a spurt of growth. The refinery operating rate increased by nearly % compared with last year.
From a supply perspective, U.S. crude oil production has entered a downward path due to the continued downturn in oil prices and the significant reduction in the number of active drilling rigs. Data show that as of March, the number of active rigs drilling for crude oil in the United States dropped to a level equivalent to that of last month.
In addition, supply disruptions in places such as Canada and Nigeria continue to be positive for the crude oil market in the short term. In addition, it is currently the summer travel season in the United States, and domestic crude oil consumption in the United States will experience a seasonal rebound, which will help drive up crude oil prices. At the same time, the expansion of crude oil reserves in major consuming countries around the world has also contributed to the recovery of crude oil prices.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on the same day showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week for the first time in months. The declines in gasoline and distillate inventories were both larger than expected. Crude oil futures jumped after the data was released and then rose.
Some analysts say that U.S. inventories will continue to increase before this summer. Currently, U.S. commercial inventories reach 1.0 billion barrels, but the growth rate is significantly lower than last year. As inventory increases and decreases have a significant negative correlation with refining facility utilization, refining utilization will rise in the second quarter. U.S. commercial inventories and Cushing inventories are expected to peak and begin to decline in the second half of the month or later.
International investment banks have divergent views on crude oil prices. Citigroup is firmly bullish on Goldman Sachs while taking a conservative stance. Goldman Sachs was still bearish on international crude oil prices in the middle and late months of the month, but the cumulative increase in New York crude oil futures prices that month exceeded %.
The factors currently dominating international crude oil prices are very complex and mainly depend on whether the Federal Reserve restarts raising interest rates. Judging from the current economic indicators, the conditions for restarting are not yet met. The foundation for the sharp rebound in oil prices is not very solid, but there are no major negative factors that will lead to a weakening in the short term.
The above reasons have led to the recent unstoppable rise in crude oil prices, and the fundamental environment of crude oil has basically remained stable. Crude oil prices are expected to open a new round of rising space.
Account opening process of Zhejiang Bulk Exchange
The first step is to select an organization to open an account (please consult the exchange’s customer service to obtain the account opening URL)
The second step is to read the risk disclosure letter
Step 3: Fill in the basic personal information
Step 4: Read the customer agreement
Step 5: Registration is successful
Step 6: Sign the contract to activate the account (to activate the account, please contact the customer service line of the Finance Department)
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