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It always makes people love and hate it, some people cry Some people laughed, while others couldn't laugh or cry. Sometimes I think it is an opportunity, but it is actually a trap. When you feel that the market has laid a landmine for you, it is indeed an opportunity. When the data comes, you will find that the market trend you originally imagined is completely different from the reality. Today's reversal and changeable market situation has caught many people off guard. Every time a sudden market development occurs, people will always find various reasonable reasons afterwards, but when you think back to the time of the incident, you will find that these reasons are far-fetched.
The non-agricultural sector, which investment banks hailed as the most important this year, has finally revealed its true face. The U.S. Department of Labor announced an unexpectedly large increase in monthly non-farm payroll employment of .
The trend of national non-agricultural data is both hot and cold
It is a traditional market drama, and it is the first employment report after the Brexit referendum. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday showed that the U.S. The number of non-agricultural employment increased strongly by 10,000 people in the month, far exceeding market expectations of an increase of 20,000 people, and setting the largest single-month increase since last month. As wage growth slowed and federal rate fund futures showed traders were still betting the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates this year, the dollar quickly gave up its gains and gold and silver fought back, setting off a rollercoaster ride. Interestingly, the already terrible non-farm payroll data for the month has been further revised down. The market is generally cautious about this non-farm payroll, believing that this non-farm payroll will not be enough to boost the Federal Reserve's future interest rate hikes.
The non-farm payroll data is indeed beautiful, but the unemployment rate data is shocking. Moreover, Brexit has already caused shocks to the global economy. The Federal Reserve will not be so willful in choosing to raise interest rates in the short term. At the same time, the tone of the Fed meeting minutes was in line with market expectations and did not have any unexpected impact. Given that the Fed is expected to remain cautious for a certain period of time, the market needs to wait for further guidance from employment data to find key clues to the breakthrough of the interest rate hike process.
Gold Analysis
The price of gold continued its upward trend this week, but the overall momentum has slowed down. The overall high level has stabilized, and the weekly line has once again recorded a positive column. It has rebounded from the low level for consecutive weeks, and the bulls have captured it. US dollars, the overall performance is indeed beautiful. Above the daily line, the price is currently in a high and volatile upward trend. After Friday's non-agricultural data was significantly negative, the price broke through the daily/daily attack line and quickly converged above the moving average. However, the price recovered within the Bollinger Band, and the price ran along the upper track. , and the red kinetic energy column of the second heavy volume indicator in the attached picture has begun to shrink, and the bullish momentum has slowed down in the medium term.
On the hourly chart, the price fluctuated at a high level after rising. The price corrected above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the Bollinger Bands gradually flattened. There are obvious signs of short- and medium-term shocks. On the indicator in the attached picture, the green kinetic energy column gradually increased in volume. After completion, the golden cross gradually begins to diverge, and the golden cross continues to develop upward. In the short and medium term, the price shows obvious signs of recovery. The bottom focuses on the important mid-term support, the short term focuses on the support of /, and the top focuses on the suppression of the high point. In terms of operation, Wang Yiyao It is recommended to focus on stepping back on long orders, supplemented by short-term short orders.
Monday gold short-term and short-term layout strategy
Place long orders in the middle line, stop loss below, target is near
Put short-term long orders, stop loss in US dollars, target near the midline
And place short orders , stop loss on US dollars, look nearby
Oil analysis
On Thursday, oil prices fell below two-month lows, and U.S. crude oil fell below the key support level of the U.S. dollar. Looking at the weekly line, crude oil showed signs of a sharp decline this week. Crude oil also fell first and then rebounded on Friday. The line runs on the middle track of Bollinger Bands, and the opening of Bollinger Bands rises slightly. The attached chart has a golden cross above the zero axis, the red kinetic energy column is weakening in volume, the dead cross is downward, and the indicator is weak. Judging from the daily line, this week is a volatile and downward asphalt. The line is running below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. In the attached picture, both lines cross and run downward. The indicators are weak
Yiyao comprehensively believes that the oil price Declining and pressure on refinery margins are dragging down crude prices. Things may get better in 2020, but it's still the middle of the year. U.S. oil is likely to fall back below the dollar per barrel mark before prices achieve a steady rise.
Oil operation analysis and strategy for next Monday
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