Fujian Xinlong Commodity Trading Center

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Regarding the issue of the total disposable income of residents being underestimated, the author once wrote in A study was conducted in 2016. The method is very simple, because in the long run, income should equal expenditure. Assuming that residents’ new expenditure is roughly equal to new increase in income in one year, then the actual disposable income of residents in that year can be estimated. If minus If you look at the economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics' sample survey on residents' disposable income, you will find that it is underestimated.
The expenditure referred to here means consumption plus savings in economics, that is, expenditure in a broad sense, including newly increased consumption during the year, newly increased residents’ savings, residents’ investment in stocks, bonds, funds, bank financial products, and insurance. The net expenditure of expenses also includes the net investment in house purchase investment, mortgage principal and interest repayment, etc., as well as investment in fixed assets. According to this method, the total annual disposable income of residents is underestimated by about 1 trillion yuan.
Now, a more convenient estimation method has been discovered. The "China Statistical Yearbook" contains the fund flow statements (physical transactions) for the past three years, which show that the total disposable income of the household sector in 2019 was . trillion, . trillion and . trillion respectively. This is the economic data obtained by the Bureau of Statistics based on the accounting method determined by the United Nations System of National Economic Accounts (2016). Its basic principle is similar to the balance calculation method in accounting. The so-called household sector here is also Including individual industrial and commercial persons other than general residents, this is consistent with the coverage of residents in the sample survey of the National Bureau of Statistics.
If the economic data of the sample survey of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents of the National Bureau of Statistics are multiplied by From the urban and rural permanent population, it can be calculated that the total annual disposable income of Chinese residents is . trillion, . trillion and . billion and trillions. In other words, the revised annual total disposable income of residents by the National Bureau of Statistics is trillions higher than the originally announced sample survey results, and is also higher than the author’s estimate for this year.
Although the National Statistics The bureau will not publish the 2019 fund flow statement (physical transactions) until 2020. However, based on the already published annual per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents (sample survey results), it can be calculated that the total disposable income of Chinese residents in 2018 is approximately . Since the cumulative increase in residents' disposable income (sample survey results) in the past three years is %, it can be calculated that the actual total disposable income of residents may reach . The proportion of residents' disposable income has increased from .% to .%. This proportion may be able to resolve the long-term criticism of the low proportion of residents' income.
Steel bars that have stretched the scale of fixed asset investment
Many scholars define the undervalued part of residents’ income as gray income. This is of course a bit exaggerated, but at least this proportion is not low. So, where do the main channels for obtaining this part of gray income come from? From the perspective of monetary expenditures Look, the fixed asset investment field should be a major channel, because consumption and exports are relatively visible and easy to count.
If analyzed purely from economic data, the quarterly economic data so far this year show that the growth rate of total investment The correlation with the growth rate has always been very small. For example, during the economic downturn, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to rise, and the investment growth rate basically failed to reflect the changing trend of the actual economy. Looking at the incremental capital-output ratio , it has reached about 20% in 2010, and has exceeded the level in recent years. This can of course be explained by the decrease in marginal investment efficiency, but can it also be explained by the increasing cost of investment? Although the cost of land acquisition Market factors such as the rise in the market are also responsible for the inflated growth rate of fixed asset investment. However, even if the actual growth rate after deducting market factors is used to examine, it will still be found that the scale of fixed asset investment is suspected of inflated growth.
In order to confirm We might as well explain this from the correlation between the growth rate of crude steel production and the growth rate of fixed asset investment. Because fixed asset investment uses steel, the two should increase and decrease simultaneously, and the statistics of crude steel production can be The reliability is relatively high. The compound growth rate of annual crude steel output is .%, but the compound growth rate of fixed asset investment during the same period is .% (excluding market factors), a difference of more than 10 percentage points, indicating that crude steel output does not increase with fixed asset investment. growth corresponding to the growth.
Taking last year as an example, the output of crude steel was .00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of only .%, which was lower than the growth rate. The actual growth rate of fixed asset investment was .%, which exceeded the growth rate of crude steel by 0.0 percentage points. If we look at plates, Part of the panels are used in construction, but the apparent consumption of panels last year showed negative growth, while the growth rate of investment in real estate development reached .%. Such a huge contrast is indeed puzzling. In investment