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Thursday The prices of precious metals have different trends. The price of gold has adjusted sideways and weakly, and its downward momentum has weakened. However, the trend of silver has been relatively optimistic and has begun to stop falling and rebound, ending the four consecutive negative patterns on the daily chart. China's economy is still weak, the downward pressure is high, and market demand is generally weak, which will continue to suppress the trends of gold and silver. However, the U.S. economy continues to recover, its second-quarter data is better than expected, and the U.S. dollar index continues to rise, further suppressing the trend of precious metals. In the short term, there is demand for a rebound in gold and silver prices, but there is not much room above, and investors can maintain the strategy of shorting on rallies.

Fundamental Analysis

US economic data has picked up, and investors have increased confidence in its economic recovery. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce today showed that the actual annualized quarterly rate of the U.S. in the second quarter was revised up to .% growth, with expected growth of .% and the previous value growth of .%. In addition, U.S. monthly existing home contract sales continued to rise, rising six times in the past seven months, indicating that the country's real estate market is expected to gain further recovery momentum. U.S. monthly existing home contract sales increased by .%, and the previous value was revised to a decrease. .%. Stimulated by strong economic data, the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, thus suppressing the trend of gold and weakening the momentum of silver's rebound.

Kansas City Fed President George said yesterday that the Fed should now adopt a wait-and-see stance because financial markets are facing volatility and China's economic growth is slowing. George said this week's sharp market volatility has complicated the outlook for a decision at the Fed's monthly meeting, but it's unclear whether the market turmoil has fundamentally changed that outlook. Judging from the speeches of George and Dudley this week, both chairmen expressed ambiguous concerns about raising interest rates. The main reason is that the abnormal fluctuations in the financial market in the past month have affected the positions of the two hawkish committee members. , so what decision the Fed will make in March still needs more data to support it.

The U.S. economic data in the past two days have been exceptionally good, and dollar bulls have also taken the opportunity to counterattack. However, this evening Beijing time, the U.S. will release the monthly core price index. Investors should be wary of the impact of this data on the current outlook. Pour cold water on your emotions. The Fed has previously hinted that when to raise interest rates depends on the performance of economic data, and the monthly core price index may provide further clues to the direction of monetary policy. Given the importance of inflation data, the monthly core price index does not rule out the possibility of triggering a big market. The market expects the core price index to increase by .% on a monthly basis, compared with an increase of .% in the previous month. Later in the day, the United States will also announce the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for October. The market expects the previous value to be this data, which will also have a certain impact on the trend of the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

Silver fluctuated within a narrow range during the day. From a technical point of view, the silver moving average system is arranged in a short position and falls below the trend line support. The current trend is bearish, and the dead cross above the zero axis of the fast and slow line of the current trend bearish indicator diverges downward, and the green kinetic energy column begins to increase. Hourly, as silver stood above and above, the short-term rebound kinetic energy of the indicator diverged upward below the zero axis, and the red kinetic energy column began to increase. On the whole, silver's technical indicators are bearish and have fallen below important trend line support. Investors are advised to mainly short on rallies.


Long and short game

Spot gold Gold remained volatile yesterday, and there was no sharp weakening for the time being. The pattern is still weak, and there is a need for adjustment in the short term. , patiently waiting for full adjustment.

Reasons to be bullish: Dudley said there is less urgency to raise interest rates every month.

Reasons to be bearish The Fed is optimistic about the U.S. economic prospects. The recent U.S. economic data has picked up. The U.S. dollar index has rebounded strongly. Silver technical indicators are bearish