Guangxi Zhongzheng Commodity Trading Center

Guangxi Zhongzheng Commodity Trading Center investment hotline, real-time market analysis, all market trends are broken
Breakthroughs, professional investment solutions, accurate online orders, sincerely recruiting personal agents, company agents
Last week (month, day, month, day) The price of gold weakened sharply during the week. The highest price of gold fell from .USD/oz to .USD/oz, and it recorded the largest weekly decline in the month. Gold prices have weakened mainly due to expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the weakening of gold's safe-haven demand. In addition, light trading has amplified market trends, causing gold prices to unexpectedly plummet. This week (the week of March 1st), the market's focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, physical gold buying, and whether the market's demand for safe havens can be rekindled.

The trading volume in the Chinese market has been unusually large for two consecutive days, and many people suspect that this wave of selling in the gold market comes from China. Some traders and analysts speculated that the selling originated from a Chinese entity, possibly with the motive of pushing gold prices below key support levels during a light trading time of the day. Shortly after the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened on Monday, a wave of sell orders appeared within one minute, causing the most actively traded U.S. gold futures contract to plummet to US dollars per ounce, its lowest level since January. In the space of two minutes, an estimated 100,000 tons of gold worth US$100 million changed hands in the Shanghai and New York gold markets.

Expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates are the main factor suppressing gold prices. The latest sell-off is widespread as the U.S. dollar strengthens and investors prepare for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in years, underscoring a deteriorating outlook for the gold market. The market is currently paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting, which will be held on March 1.

The current market forecast for when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Most analysts currently believe that the Federal Reserve has the highest probability of raising interest rates this month. Nomura Securities lowered its forecast for the Federal Reserve's monthly rate hike probability from % to %. However, the bank raised its monthly rate hike probability forecast from % to %.

Fed Bullard made a public statement on Monday and pointed out that it may be too early to raise interest rates this week, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this month is higher than %. He expects the U.S. to grow at % in the second half of the year, and the economy no longer needs an emergency policy environment. Bullard does not have a vote on the FOMC this year.

UBS expects that at the policy meeting resolution released this week, the Federal Reserve will announce that U.S. economic activity is continuing to expand, and a series of labor market indicators will also show that labor idleness continues to subside. It may also be noted that the balance of risks to economic activity has shifted to the upside as global risks recede. It is believed that such language will prompt market participants to reconsider their judgment on the Fed's monthly interest rate hike.

Returning to the market analysis, the four-hour online trend of silver showed a descending triangle shape. The price touched a position near the downward pressure in the morning and fell under pressure. The price directly broke through the mark and moved downward. In terms of moving averages, the current high point is under pressure, forming short-term resistance during the day. The dead cross and dead cross continue to open downward, and the short-term arrangement is short. Judging from the line trend, the overall trend has basically entered the front position of the descending triangle, and the short-term range will be lowered to the range. In terms of operations, try to control operations within this range. In the attached picture, the golden cross is about to bond, the green energy is exhausted, and the short-term trend is biased towards neutral. In terms of operation, the main idea is to maintain high-level short selling, supplemented by short-term long orders. On the rebound, you can try short selling operations. The risk is controlled at the top. It is recommended to go long when the target is long. The minimum risk is enough, and the target is seen.

Focus on this week

Monday, German monthly business sentiment index, UK monthly industrial orders difference, US monthly durable goods orders monthly rate, US monthly Dallas Fed business activity index

Tuesday, the initial value of the UK second quarter annual rate, the annual rate of the US monthly/large city housing price index, the US monthly service industry, the US monthly Conference Board consumer confidence index, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index

Wednesday, U.S. crude oil inventories for the week to March, Germany’s monthly consumer confidence index, UK monthly central bank mortgage approvals, UK monthly retail sales differential, U.S. existing home contracted sales index, monthly rate, U.S. crude oil inventories for the week to March
< br/> On Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, Switzerland’s monthly economic leading indicators, Germany’s monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment number, monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone’s monthly industrial climate index, monthly economic climate index, and monthly consumer confidence index final value, Germany’s monthly rate Initial value: The initial value of the actual annualized quarterly rate in the second quarter of the United States, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week, the initial value of the annualized rate of the core price index in the United States in the second quarter, and the actual quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter of the United States

Friday, UK Monthly Consumer Confidence Index Japan Monthly Unemployment Rate, Japan Monthly National Core Annual Rate, Japan Monthly Core Annual Rate Eurozone Monthly Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Monthly Annual Rate Initial Value Canada Monthly Monthly Rate US Month Chicago US Month University of Michigan Consumption Final value of investor confidence index