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In the first half of the year, due to lower fuel margins, refineries in Russia and Asia (especially China) turned to large-scale production of gasoline and mineral distillates. However, due to unsatisfactory cracking profits, gasoline inventories were high, and global gasoline supplies were also in decline. Increased due to capacity upgrades, however this situation will reverse in the second half of the year. Demand for petroleum products has been strong throughout, with demand increasing by 10,000 barrels per day year-over-year in the first half of the year, so it's not about total demand, it's about overproduction of gasoline. But the problem was resolved as cracking profits fell and oil prices fell. The cracking price difference refers to the price difference between Xinhua Shanghai’s cracked products (such as gasoline and diesel) and Xinhua Shanghai’s imports from the refinery.
The oil market is rebalancing as large refineries either cut spending or interrupt supply, causing supply losses in Xinhua Shanghai. Global Xinhua Shanghai supply fell by more than 10,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, which will bring the decline in the second half of the year to 10,000 barrels per day compared with last year. The OECD's Xinhua Shanghai inventory reached 10,000 barrels/day in the first half of the year (much lower than the forecast of 10,000 barrels/day). Financial expert Barron (.) said that taking into account the loss of Xinhua Shanghai and floating oil storage inventories in the Canadian wildfires, this number will drop to 10,000 barrels per day in the second half of the year.
The current oil market pattern is very similar to the rebalancing of the oil market in 2016. The key to global oil demand lies in petroleum products, automotive oil and jet engine fuel, which is also the key to rebalancing the oil market. In another week, the peak of oil demand will pass, and monthly oil demand will decrease by 10,000 barrels per day.
Brexit has brought populism back into vogue and is a catalyst for political elites to re-evaluate monetary tightening and shift towards inflation, which will solve many problems, especially those in China. China intends to reduce fiscal stimulus, which is reflected in the slowdown in fiscal spending and credit growth. However, after economic growth and economic data deteriorated, China will continue fiscal stimulus. In addition to launching large-scale borrowing projects, fiscal expenditures will also increase by 3% year-on-year. China's growth expectations are staggering, oil demand remains strong, and its strategic oil reserves are expected to reach 10,000 barrels per day in the second half of the year.
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