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Emperor Financial Group Emperor Liu Jingwen, senior business manager of Gold Industry Co., Ltd., said that international spot gold rebounded slightly from a five-week low on Monday (June 2) from the five-week low after the hawkish speeches of Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen and Vice Chairman Fisher last Friday. The US market reached its highest intraday high It reached .USD/oz, and the price of gold showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding. The hawkish speech of a heavyweight Federal Reserve official caused gold to surge sharply. On Monday, after the market gradually digested the negative speech, gold's decline eased. The U.S. monthly personal consumption expenditures released today have recorded growth for four consecutive months, pushing up expectations for interest rate hikes within the year. The monthly non-farm payrolls report will be released this Friday, and investors should pay close attention to it. If the result greatly exceeds market expectations, it may become the last risk release that has a greater impact on the financial market. After all, this is the last non-agricultural data release before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March. The current market trading sentiment is not active because investors have chosen a more cautious attitude before this.
In terms of data, U.S. monthly personal consumption expenditures increased for the fourth consecutive month, and the core price index, the inflation indicator that the Fed is most concerned about, increased by .% month-on-month, unchanged from expectations. Higher wage growth supports rising personal consumption expenditures. Bloomberg quoted the chief economist as saying that consumers are currently a strong support for the economy and this momentum will continue in the third quarter.
Last week’s global central bank annual meeting did not intend to stop stimulus, and next week’s European Central Bank meeting may also take easing to the end. A recent ECB research report stated that the Federal Reserve’s experience shows that waiting for unconventional monetary policy to successfully affect market expectations of bond yields will help create a favorable long-term financing environment.
The above report examines the impact of large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance, that is, how they affect professionals' expectations for the yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and corporate securities. The study found that analysts usually revise their personal expectations before and after the Fed announces its resolution statement, and their revisions have an important impact on U.S. Treasury bonds and corporate bonds, both from a statistical and economic perspective. The report said that after the Federal Reserve launched easing measures in response to the financial crisis, forecasters expected bond yields to fall sharply and to continue falling for at least a year.