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The probability of continuous increase in negative oil prices is high. Why is it said that the probability of continuous increase in inventories is higher? According to one reason, the similarity with inventories is as high as %. According to two foreign media surveys, US crude oil inventories will increase for the second consecutive time. Specific data show that in the week as of March 31, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 10,000 barrels to 100 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 10,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 0,000 barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 10,000 barrels. The survey shows that U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to increase by 10,000 barrels in the week ending March 1, gasoline inventories will decrease by 10,000 barrels, and refined oil inventories will increase by 10,000 barrels.
The probability of an increase in deposits is very high, and the U.S. dollar has fallen below again. Although there has been a sharp correction later, if an increase is recorded in the evening, oil prices will inevitably fall below strong support, and the probability of a bear market in oil prices may increase by %.
Industrial data is a forward-looking indicator of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Surveys show that the data is expected to increase by 10,000, slightly lower than the previous value. It would be further evidence that labor market conditions remain strong if the monthly report shows that private sector employment continues to grow rapidly. Compared with the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data, the private sector employment data shows a more stable growth trend, which has remained between 0.000 and 0.000 since the beginning of the year. Within a narrow range of people. The survey shows that the U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 10,000 jobs per month, which is smaller than the monthly increase of 1,000 jobs.
However, looking at the past year, month is the month with the largest deviation value after month. In the past year, there was an average deviation of . And for statisticians, March is a tricky month, and the peak summer vacation period will affect the response speed. On the evening of October 1, Fed Vice Chairman Fisher said that the U.S. job market is close to full employment and the pace of the Fed's interest rate hikes will depend on the performance of the economy. It cannot simply be assumed that interest rates will be raised once this year. Data expectations are basically consistent with expectations for U.S. monthly non-agricultural data, which may mean that if it meets expectations tonight, Friday's non-agricultural data is expected to be good, which will boost the U.S. dollar index and further increase expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Crude oil prices have fallen again under pressure.
Since the beginning of the month, although the production freeze has continued to boost oil prices, the market generally expects that the monthly production freeze will be difficult to achieve and will become a bubble again like the previous month. However, rumors of production freezes have disrupted the normal trend of crude oil prices from time to time. For example, Iran has previously expressed its willingness to participate in the monthly meeting, which has caused crude oil prices to rise in the short term, but it has set conditions that require other oil-producing countries to respect Iran's rights. Crude oil production reached 10,000 barrels, which sharply cooled expectations for a production freeze, and crude oil prices plummeted below the US dollar.
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