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- b-: brr-b :. -:b( B', '', original A committee member who belongs to the dovish camp is now watching from the other camp. This person is Boston Fed President Rosengren. Analysts pointed out that Rosengren’s speech last week was not taken seriously by the market, but if the Fed next If Zhou really implements the action of raising interest rates, it is probably because of his support.
b-: brr-b :. -:b( B', '', Tufts University economics professor Besho (BB) ) said that Rosengren's change may not have attracted market attention because the president of the Boston Fed usually receives little attention and "will not disclose any information if it is not necessary." Beshoe added that in this regard, he Very similar to Yellen.
b-: brr-b :. -:b( B', '', In addition, Barclays analysts pointed out that Rosengren’s position is very important. There are two For various reasons. On the one hand, this confirms that although the economic data are "mixed," they are enough to reach the threshold for a majority of members to raise interest rates. On the other hand, among the regional Fed presidents, one supports raising interest rates, and the lone dove Pie is Chicago Fed President Evans.
b-: brr-b :. -:b( B', '', Moreover, according to a Reuters survey of multiple analysts in the past week, In the survey, most people believe that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to .-.% in the fourth quarter. The median forecast shows that the chance of a monthly interest rate hike is %. In the survey last month, the chance was .%, and market conditions showed that the chance was less than %. If the Fed does raise interest rates this month, it will still be a year since the last rate hike, highlighting that it will find it extremely difficult to raise interest rates even once. The Fed's original forecast last month was that it would raise interest rates four times this year.
b-: brr-b :. -:b( B', '', In fact, a series of concerns are becoming obstacles to raising interest rates, including China's economic slowdown, the market's plunge at the beginning of the year, and Brexit. Since the beginning of this year , many people have begun to predict that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at all in 2020. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said in September that the reasons for raising interest rates have strengthened, highlighting the possibility of a recent interest rate hike.
In addition, the survey The median shows that analysts think the chance of the Fed raising interest rates at the May-Sunday meeting is about 1%, only slightly higher than the expectations reflected in market trends, and only 0% of respondents actually hold this view at the time of forecasting. %. By comparison, the median chance of a rate hike in the fourth quarter is as high as %. Plus, given that the Fed’s monthly monetary policy meeting is only a few days before the U.S. presidential election, if there is no action this month, then the month is really the only one choose.
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