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Barclays Bank’s latest research report shows the inflow of commodity investment funds from month to month this year USD 100 million has exceeded the level of the same period last year and set a new historical record. This means that commodity investment will end the three consecutive years of retracement this year. Commodity fund managers are finally looking forward to a "good harvest year."
Barclays data shows that investment inflows in commodities for the whole year were US$100 million, setting a record at the time. The capital inflow in the first month of this year has exceeded the same period last year, so this year is expected to refresh the "best in history." Norris, an analyst at the bank, said: "Unless the market collapses during the rest of the year and leads to continued capital outflows, this year is likely to end three consecutive years of retracement of commodity investment."
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According to Barclays Statistics show that gold is the most popular commodity investment, accounting for half of the total investment volume. The report states that uncertainty in the financial sector and the global economy and increasing political risks have prompted continued inflows of funds into gold investments. In the first half of this year, the Bloomberg Commodity Index showed a total return of more than %. The commodity market performed better than the global bond market and stock market. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has increased by %, while the price of crude oil has increased by %, while the price of silver has surged by %. Barclays said this is a major market change. At the beginning of this year, almost everyone could not imagine that this market could "come back to life" because commodities had an unusually bleak start to the year.
Norris said the overall trend in commodities has reversed and will continue to move higher over the next few years. One reason for this view is that a large number of asset management companies still have insufficient investment positions in commodities. In addition, in its quarterly commodity market outlook released at the end of the month, the World Bank believes that changes in commodity prices this year will be mainly driven by rising demand. The agency has almost fully raised its price expectations for all commodities in the year, especially energy and food prices. But there is also concern in the face of a rare commodity bull market.
Reuters pointed out that it is precisely because global central banks have kept yields low or even negative for several years that the momentum for investment in commodities has changed. But this price rise is not caused by economic demand, but is mainly driven by speculation. Once the rise in metal and oil prices is blocked, the wave of commodity investment may be reversed. Norris also said: "Most of the demand for commodities this year is due to strategic considerations. Unless such assets continue to bring strong returns in the second half of the year, capital outflows will resume." Citigroup is also tracking commodity investment flows. The bank's analyst Du Xi believes that this month should be a seasonally weak stage for the commodity market. He said in a research report:
&;Commodity prices may move sideways or weaken slightly in the short term. The continued outflow of funds from passive index products may be the monthly operating pattern.
Both crude oil and gold have been trading sideways in the past two months and have not hit new highs
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