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Just when investors are looking forward to the stars and the moon While waiting for the Federal Reserve to take action, Dalio, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater, warned the Federal Reserve that an interest rate increase of 10 basis points would cause trillions of dollars in losses and the assets held by investors would Suffered heavy losses.
He believes that the current global financial situation is most similar to the United States in 2000 and Japan in the past year. Most countries have approached the dual limits of debt and easing, with Japan ranking first, followed by Europe, followed by the United States and China. Central banks will also be forced to buy more riskier assets, and the attractiveness of assets like gold will continue to grow. He further pointed out that the debt bubble that was not eliminated during the 2006 financial crisis has now grown to an alarming degree. He said:
The biggest problem at the moment is that there is only so much that can be squeezed out of a debt cycle, and the big Some countries are already approaching this limit. &r
In addition, as interest rates gradually approach negative values, the effectiveness of financial instruments also begins to reach its limits. This has become a global problem.
Although Dalio believes that a debt crisis will not happen immediately, he believes that financial repression (inappropriate financial policies) will become increasingly intensified due to high debt levels, pension and medical insurance liabilities. Revenue growth, low investment returns and accelerating debt growth. Due to demographic factors, most countries will soon face pension and medical insurance liabilities that are far greater than their current debt levels.
In fact, financial repression is often considered to be the main reason why China's debt scale has reached levels similar to those that triggered Japan's Lost Decade and the Asian Financial Crisis. Since 2001, China's overall debt has increased to 1%.
There will be a lot of long-term pain for debt holders. As long as interest rates rise slightly faster than current market expectations, bond and all asset prices will take a hit because they are very sensitive to the discount rate used to calculate future cash flows. Due to lower interest rates, the effective holding time of all assets has been extended, so they are more sensitive to price. Dalio pointed out:
&As long as the U.S. bond yields rise by a few points, the global bond market will face a year-round crisis. The worst drop since the bond market crashed. Because these ultra-low interest rates are already embedded in the prices of all assets, any increase in interest rates will severely damage these assets. &r
In fact, his statement is not new. As early as last month, the financial blog Zero Hedge published an article pointing out that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 1% would cause losses of up to trillions of dollars.
Dalio’s suggestion for this is: Now, some riskier assets are more attractive than bonds and cash, but relative to risk, these assets are not cheap. If this situation persists, non-financial wealth store assets such as gold will become more attractive, especially as exchange rate volatility increases.
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