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China's monthly manufacturing purchasing managers' index released by the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin on March 26 both hit a new high in more than two years. Analysis shows that the manufacturing industry seems to be picking up significantly and the Chinese economy has stabilized in the short term and inflationary pressure has begun to emerge.
According to Caixin.com, the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index released on March 20th was .6 percentage points higher than the previous month. This trend is consistent with the manufacturing industry released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index increased by . percentage points from the previous month.
Looking at the sub-data, the monthly output growth momentum has become stronger, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year and driving the index to rise. Respondent manufacturers reported that the increase in new business had supported the expansion of output. The total number of new orders received during the month further increased and the growth rate set a monthly record. However, the growth in new business was mainly due to the slight decline in new export business volume during the month due to stronger domestic demand.
At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the shrinkage trend of manufacturing employment slowed down. The monthly employment contraction rate fell to the slightest level since September. The interviewed manufacturers that reduced their manpower during the month generally stated that the reason was to reduce costs. Capacity pressures have thus further exacerbated the backlog, which has risen for the eighth consecutive month.
The monthly average cost burden of the manufacturing industry has accelerated significantly. Input prices have experienced the most significant increase in more than five years. In order to shift the pressure of rising production costs, manufacturers generally raised the ex-factory prices of their products during the month. The markup was as significant as the cost increase, reaching the highest record since the beginning of the year.
Dr. Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macro research at Caixin think tank Moneta, said that the manufacturing industry seems to be picking up significantly. Both the new orders index and the output index rose sharply but the faster rise in the input price index and the output price index reflected the beginning of inflationary pressures. The short-term stabilization of China's economy is mainly due to policy stabilization. Follow-up policy support may still be necessary, otherwise industrial production risks being dragged down by investment.
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