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Changyang on the first trading day after the holiday is really rare . Although the investment themes and hot spots are not new, the technical operation trend has made a good start, and a shift from left-hand trading to right-hand trading is underway, and a trend reversal is being sought.
Just looking at the current operating trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, it is undoubtedly sensitive. Compared with the beginning of the year, the current operating pattern has changed, and the medium and long-term moving average system (daily) has changed from a high degree of expansion and dispersion to a comprehensive accumulation. A round of rapid adjustments from the end of last year to the beginning of the year was a typical left-side transaction (that is, the index continued to decline for a trading day, and the index deviated downward by % from the daily moving average). At that time, the mood was extremely pessimistic, and the point position also formed a second bottom, achieving a reversal in the form of a &&r bottom pattern. The subsequent rise was also cautious, and finally hit the annual line (day) in the middle of the month, and it took a month to complete the construction of the left trading state. The retracement adjustment in the past month or so is a transition period for the evolution of left-hand trading to right-hand trading. Recently, several times of retesting the daily moving average and recurring volume have proved from one side that the upward trend brought about by left-hand trading is stable. reliable. At this time, if price and volume can cooperate to achieve an upward breakthrough to the current consolidation platform, the trend will be reversed, and the gentle upward trend since the bottom will turn to accelerate. Of course, this transition from left to right trading is usually very sensitive, and there will also be a more pessimistic situation, that is, choosing to go down and evolving into a new round of decline.
To change the pessimistic mood, we need to find a breakthrough, and a breakthrough supported by valuation is an effective breakthrough. The three major U.S. stock indexes have hit new highs one after another, but the overall price-to-earnings ratio is only about 100 times. The valuation advantage of stocks also exists. For example, the price-to-earnings ratios of Shanghai and Shenzhen are still around 100 times. Only small and medium-sized startups are in trouble, and their overall price-to-earnings ratios are at 100 times. The price-to-book ratio is similar, the former is .times, and the latter is about .times. The most effective way to break the deadlock in this valuation structure is to shift the valuation focus of medium and large-capitalization stocks upward. So, what do mid-to-large-capitalization blue-chip stocks rely on to improve their growth and thereby increase their valuations? Obviously, our core advantage is reform, transformation and upgrading. Since late March, cases of transformation and upgrading of blue-chip stocks in traditional industries have also continued to emerge. A typical example is Midea Group, a leading home appliance company, which has quickly entered intelligent hardware manufacturing (robots) through mergers and acquisitions. There are many similar companies, such as Fuyao Glass, Gree Electric Appliances, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Hikvision, Dahua Technology, Wanhua Chemical, etc. Traditional advantageous industries are grafted onto innovative industries. This is the future of stocks.
Compared with US stocks, the biggest shortcoming of stocks is the lack of innovative blue-chip stocks. The current bull market in U.S. stocks is the process of the overall rise of innovative blue-chip stocks. Like Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, etc. On March 1, these giants established an (artificial intelligence) alliance. In the past year, innovative companies represented by Apple and Amazon have continued to drive U.S. stocks to new highs. In the past few years, stocks have also speculated on a series of new technology concept stocks. The concepts are in sync with the world, but what is more needed now is the implementation of industries and the birth of advantageous companies. Now, the top management has proposed the strategy of strengthening the country through network and accelerating the independent innovation of network information technology, which will bring direct support to advantageous enterprises in cloud services (cloud computing, big data), Internet of Things (sensors), artificial intelligence (intelligent hardware) and other fields. , such as Unisoc, Sugon, Halo New Network, Huashengtiancheng, Goertek, Hanwei Electronics, Sanhuan Group, Lianchuang Electronics, Oriental Netpower, Hikvision, Dahua Technology, Inovance Technology, Although the overall P/E ratio of stock prices of iFlytek and other companies is not low, the pace of stock price movement is also at the low level of this round of adjustment, and the driving force for thematic investment is expected to be formed again.
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