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As expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates heat up, the US dollar "storm" hits the world. Spot gold fell for three consecutive weeks last week, but futures gold recorded its first rise in three weeks. This week will be a week of focus for gold investors, because there are major events such as the U.S. presidential election "ultimate" debate, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, and China's third quarter. It is expected that the best opportunity for gold will occur after the European Central Bank meeting.
&&US retail sales data rebounded, the US monthly growth rate exceeded expectations, and the US dollar surged
&&China’s monthly foreign trade shrank, increasing risk aversion
&&Thai King Bhumibol passed away
&&The U.S. dollar index fluctuated and rose after Yellen’s speech
& This week’s big preview
As the U.S. dollar rose on the back of good U.S. retail sales data, gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, but gold futures Prices posted their first rise in three weeks on the week.
The price of gold futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by .USD on Friday, and was quoted at US$. per ounce, a decrease of .%. The price of silver futures for January delivery fell by .USD, and was quoted at US$. per ounce, The decline was .%, and the cumulative increase for the week was nearly .%. When the gold futures market closed on Friday, the C USD Index rose by .%, and the index rose by about .% for the week. Spot gold has fallen for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative loss of .USD during the week, or .%, and closed at .USD/oz.
Data released last Friday showed that after unexpected contractions month after month, U.S. retail sales rebounded, with single-month growth hitting a three-month high. Reuters commented that this has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. Better retail sales data and a tightening labor market indicate that U.S. economic growth may regain momentum in the third quarter. The U.S. dollar subsequently surged, gaining more than .% against major currencies.
In addition to the "horror data", the U.S. Department of Labor also released a monthly producer price index report today. As one of the forward-looking indicators of inflation, the United States grew by .% month-on-month and by .% annually, the largest increase since January. Reuters commented that the monthly growth rate in the United States exceeded expectations, and the weakening impact of the strengthening dollar was enough to support the view that inflation will rise.
In addition, a report released by China's General Administration of Customs on Thursday showed that external demand continued to be weak, and China's monthly foreign trade shrank and was far lower than expected. Despite the depreciation of the yuan, exports (in yuan terms) fell by .%, the largest decline since January. In U.S. dollar terms, China's monthly exports fell % year-on-year. The data triggered new worries in global markets about China's growth prospects and enhanced overall risk aversion. Some analysts said the data also raises concerns that China may adopt a weak yuan policy in the coming months, which will cause deflationary pressures in other parts of Asia. On the day the news was announced, the U.S. dollar index fell from a seven-month high, boosting the trends of gold and silver.
It is worth mentioning that major events that occurred last week that increased geopolitical risks also included the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest-reigning monarch, in Bangkok on the afternoon of Sunday local time. Risk analysts from the Eurasia Group, the world's largest political risk consulting firm, reported before the news was released that the military government may further postpone the election date to this year, and that the Thai stock market and the value of the baht will fluctuate violently after the death of the King of Thailand.
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