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Yesterday, the People's Bank of China It was announced that the monthly foreign exchange reserves decreased by another 100 million U.S. dollars, falling for the second consecutive month. Market participants said that the main factor is banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales, but the situation has also eased. In addition, the central bank may observe market reactions and manage depreciation expectations.
The People's Bank of China announced on the same day that its monthly foreign exchange reserves were US$100 million, a decrease of nearly US$100 million from the previous month, a decrease for two consecutive months, and the decline has expanded. Since the beginning of this year, foreign exchange reserves have fluctuated slightly between one trillion and one trillion yuan. Even if it falls below one trillion, China's foreign reserves are still far beyond the safety line, but the management of market expectations cannot be ignored.
Data released by the central bank on the same day showed that foreign exchange reserves at the end of the month fell by .% from the previous month, and the monthly decrease was .%. Priced foreign exchange reserves also experienced negative growth, reaching .00 billion at the end of the month and .000 billion at the end of the month. Market participants said that the fluctuation of the US dollar against major currencies in March was relatively small, so the impact on the exchange rate was relatively small. The relatively large impact may be the change in the valuation of the investment target assets. For example, the yield on US Treasury bonds increased in May, which will have an impact on reserves. The valuation of U.S. Treasury bonds in investment has a negative impact, but the factor affecting foreign exchange reserves is still the settlement and sales of foreign exchange by banks, that is, capital outflows.
However, experts believe that this does not mean that capital outflows have intensified. On the contrary, capital outflows have eased. The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit in March was US$100 million. And the monthly decrease of 100 million in foreign exchange reserves, even if all comes from the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit, will be greatly alleviated compared with the previous month. Ding Zhijie, assistant to the president of the University of International Business and Economics, said
One factor that has to be taken into consideration is that since the fourth quarter of last year, some companies have been unwilling to remit foreign exchange earnings back to the country, but instead kept the U.S. dollars overseas for recycling. This factor reduced the supply in the domestic foreign exchange market to a certain extent and also caused the weakening of the RMB.
Zhao Qingming, chief economist of the China Financial Futures Exchange Research Institute, also believes that the monthly RMB exchange rate and the demand for capital outflows from residents and enterprises have maintained a certain degree of stability.
Since the exchange reform, the balance of foreign exchange reserves has dropped by nearly 100 million. But the most important ones occurred in the fourth quarter of last year and the first month of this year. It has been relatively stable so far this year. Specifically, the month fell below .1 trillion to . trillion, the month continued to decline slightly, the month and month rebounded slightly, the month fell to the . trillion, the month unexpectedly turned around and regained the . Continuous decline.
Scholars said that such changes may be what the central bank is happy to see. First of all, our country has generally achieved a balance of international payments, and its foreign exchange reserves have increased and decreased slightly. Secondly, although there is some depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate, it is still relatively stable, and the pressure on foreign trade has been reduced. Third, foreign exchange reserves are still above a moderate scale, but at the same time they have stopped unnecessary growth.
However, one trillion is still a subtle turning point for China’s foreign exchange reserves. This is not a red line that must be observed, but the market's reaction to changes in foreign reserves is more worthy of attention. Well-known foreign exchange expert Han Huishi said
If foreign reserves fall below one trillion U.S. dollars, the central bank will find that market investors are very concerned about it and the scale of foreign exchange purchases will increase rapidly, which will become a key number. But if foreign reserves decline bit by bit and the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit can be controlled at a low level, then one trillion is not a position that must be defended.
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