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On Monday (May 20), the inter-bank RMB borrowing rate (br) in Hong Kong's offshore market hit the second highest level on record and rose to .%, which was significantly higher than last Thursday's .%, hitting the highest level since March level. Hong Kong and mainland markets were closed last Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Some traders said the actions may have been guided by China's central bank.
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And last Wednesday (Month), overnight br surged to .% overnight. The RMB br interest rate also broke through the % mark. Many attributed this to the scarcity of RMB liquidity ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival. However, according to the well-known blog Zero Hedging, the People's Bank of China has been trying to maintain the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan at. Raising the lending rate is one of the tools it uses. Evri (r), an Asia-Pacific financial market analyst at ABN AMRO in Hong Kong, pointed out:
&;. is a very important dividing line. The purpose of central bank intervention is to maintain the exchange rate below. You could almost think of the yuan as a currency pegged to the U.S. dollar.
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Zero Hedging Representation China has a habit of intervening in currency markets before holidays. Before the National Day holiday last month, China used reduced RMB liquidity to narrow the exchange rate gap between onshore and offshore. In addition, in mid-month of this year, the central bank also intervened in the offshore RMB exchange rate. At that time, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB rose to .% on the same day and soared to .% on the 2nd. Within these two days, the offshore RMB rebounded from .
On Monday (July 2), the central bank intervened in market liquidity and finally caused the RMB exchange rate to drop from yesterday's... Although many people believe that the central bank will wait until the RMB exchange rate reaches the resistance line before intervening. But two spikes near the holidays undoubtedly mean the central bank won't wait until then.
At present, the Federal Reserve’s monthly interest rate meeting is about to be held on July 1, and international funds have clearly begun to withdraw from emerging markets, causing the exchange rates of many emerging market countries to suffer a certain depreciation. In contrast, the overall exchange rate of the RMB onshore and offshore rose instead of falling, triggering market speculation that the central bank intends to tighten offshore liquidity to boost the exchange rate.
Mizuho Bank Asia FX Strategist Zhang Jiantai analyzed that due to market speculation that the Chinese government may allow the RMB to further depreciate after the Hangzhou Summit, the People’s Bank of China may have tightened liquidity in the offshore RMB market to curb bearish sentiment, especially in May. On the eve of Japan’s RMB officially joining the R currency basket.
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