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As the monthly production freeze meeting approaches, market participants begin to think that Saudi Arabia is so concerned about the production freeze this time, but it actually has other motives and the focus is not on Adjust the market supply and demand balance.
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Since Falih took over Al-Naimi’s position as energy minister, Saudi Arabia’s tone has softened . He said the market would need oil prices above $1/barrel to restore balance, raising expectations that Saudi Arabia would resume its role as a regulator of supply and demand. On the surface, there is no change in Saudi Arabia's policy, but secretly, Saudi Arabia no longer throws oil prices to the market, but has made some actions to push up prices. Relevant people said that during the meeting in Vienna in March, Falih proposed setting a new production limit, which surprised other participants.
In fact, although the country claims a maximum production capacity of 10,000 barrels per day, this theoretical production capacity has never been tested. Therefore, many market participants say that Saudi Arabia's production can no longer be increased on a sustainable basis. This is also a seasonal production high, so a freeze at this level would have little practical impact on Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia’s change of tone came as a relief to non-Gulf members. Because these countries have high production costs and have been hit harder, they privately believe that Saudi Arabia is the culprit of the price collapse. A representative said
Saudi Arabia needs to change its strategy because if oil prices are too bad, Aramco will not be able to sell at a good price.
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