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At the end of the month, the Mexican peso exchange rate continued to fall, and the depreciation rate against the U.S. dollar once reached %, and even fell below the U.S. dollar-Mexican peso mark for the first time, setting a new historical low. That makes the Mobiso one of the worst-performing currencies this year outside of the British pound.
Some analysts say that the sharp depreciation of the Mexican peso will help attract U.S. investment and attract more U.S. tourists, which will be a blessing in disguise for the Mexican economy. However, there are also opposing views that the weakness of Mobiso has caused Mexico's public sector debt to increase sharply, which will pose a great challenge to its economy.
As of the press time of this reporter, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Mexican peso is:. Although it has rebounded from before, the rebound is not significant and is still at a low level in the medium to long term. To what extent can investment attracted by currency depreciation boost the Mexican economy, and can it offset the negative impact of the debt crisis caused by currency depreciation?
Devaluation has advantages and disadvantages
At the end of the month, the closing prices of several major commercial banks in Mexico City showed that the selling price of U.S. dollars to Mexican pesos by the Mexican Foreign Trade Bank has reached the U.S. dollar exchange rate. the highest price.
On the one hand, the devaluation of the Mexican peso has attracted a large amount of investment from the United States. In 2017, with U.S. Treasury yields hitting record lows, investors have turned their attention to other areas with lucrative returns. The capital market of Mexico, a neighbor of the United States, has attracted a large influx of funds from American investors. A report released by Barings Asset Management Research, an industry organization, stated that the Mexican bond market provides the most competitive rate of return within the bond market of emerging economies.
According to Márquez, director of the Mexico City Tourism Office, tens of thousands of Americans travel to Mexico City every year, and each person spends an average of at least Mpesos per day. As a representative of Latin American tourism, culture and food, Mexico City welcomes 10,000 tourists every year, and its tourism industry generates more than 100 million Mexican pesos. The recent depreciation of the Mexican peso has brought currency exchange transactions to a peak, and the reduction in tourism expenditure has prompted more tourists from the United States and other countries and regions to visit Mexico, which provides a source of increased tourism revenue for Mexico.
However, on the other hand, the devaluation of the Mepeso also caused huge government debt. UBS Global Research analysts said that Mobiso's current weak performance has once again posed a huge challenge to the Mexican economy. Mexico's "Economist" recently reported that Mexico's Ministry of Finance predicts that if the Mexican peso exchange rate remains at or even higher than the U.S. dollar to Mexican peso, Mexico's public sector debt will rise to .% of GDP, and at the same time it will As a result, financial costs accounted for .% of GDP.
Economic boost is limited
In the short term, Mobiso will continue to be at a low level. A UBS research report pointed out that the market should currently pay attention to the discussion of trade protectionism among U.S. presidential candidates, because U.S. trade policies will have an impact on Mexican trade. After all, Mexico’s economic growth has long relied on the U.S. market.
In addition, as an emerging market currency, the Mobiso will also be affected by the ebb of global market risk sentiment. At the same time, negative market fundamentals are also putting pressure on it.
However, the east wind of currency depreciation has a very limited boost to the Mexican economy. Xie Wenze, a researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that although the devaluation of the Mexican peso will help expand the scale of Mexico's exports of industrial manufactured goods to the United States, it can bring more trade benefits and at the same time reduce the amount of imported goods in the country, thus playing a role. It plays a role in balancing the international balance of payments and narrowing the trade deficit. However, the U.S. economic recovery is still not strong, and its impact on the Mexican economy is limited. The substantial growth of labor-intensive goods exported by ASEAN countries and China to the United States is also having an impact on Mexico’s customer industries, causing Mexico is at a competitive disadvantage. To sum up, a currency depreciation of about % cannot bridge these gaps, and its effect on boosting the Mexican economy is very limited.
However, there are also optimistic views. Ma Hong, director of Barings Asset Allocation Research, said in a report recently that although short-term exchange rate fluctuations have affected the Mexican economy to a certain extent, it should be noted that Mexico’s economic growth is highly dependent on the U.S. economy, and this dependence gives it a strong Strong support. Although some industries and sectors are weaker than in other countries, the Mexican economy has been on a trend of expansion and growth over the past six years. The outlook for Mexico's consumer market is booming, with annual retail sales growing at 3%, buoyed by record remittances from overseas workers. The Mexican economy is still considered to be on a healthy track.
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