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Wednesday ushered in three consecutive gains, and the bleak possibility weakened the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike at the end of the year. The outlook also weakened the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve's economic Beige Book released early Thursday morning Beijing time pointed out moderate economic growth, current wage pressures in more industries, and uncertainty caused by the election. The market is now focused on the upcoming final debate of the US election.
News: Gold futures hit the highest closing price in more than two weeks, and spot gold broke through the daily moving average
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book said the economy is expanding at a moderate pace
The total number of new housing starts in the United States hit a record in 2019 Low
India imposes % tax on gold
The market focuses on the final campaign debate of the US election
Gold futures prices closed higher for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday, hitting the highest closing price in more than two weeks , mainly due to renewed concerns about the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the weakening of the U.S. dollar, and the impending debate on the final U.S. election.
The price of gold futures for monthly delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.00 per ounce on Wednesday, or .%, closing at $1.00 per ounce, the highest closing price since May. .%, closing at .USD/oz. International spot gold continued to rise after hitting a two-week high, breaking through the resistance level of the daily moving average. The US market reached an intraday high of .USD/oz, but the gains were somewhat subdued in late trading. Slowly, it finally closed at .USD/oz.
Analysts believe that from a technical perspective, gold is well supported above the U.S. dollar and has entered the U.S. dollar area before the election and against the background that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this month. This is a positive signal and is expected to attract more technical buying. plate.
The total number of monthly new housing starts in the United States announced today has reached a record low since January 2019, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly %, the largest decline in five years. After a dismal performance in the second quarter, construction data is expected to continue to weigh on performance in the third quarter. The gloomy economic data may have weakened the prospects of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of the year and also weakened the dollar. In addition, the appreciation of the pound has also put pressure on the US dollar exchange rate.
The U.S. economic growth is less than expected and interest rate hikes are in doubt. The Federal Reserve’s Economic Beige Book released early Thursday morning Beijing time pointed out that the U.S. economy showed some signs of rising wage pressures in January and the beginning of the month, but the overall growth remained moderate, further showing that The economic outlook for Fed policymakers as they consider raising interest rates remains unclear. In addition, the Beige Book shows that regional Fed reports have repeatedly emphasized the uncertainty caused by the election. This report was released after the gold futures market closed. After the report was released, gold prices rose slightly in subsequent electronic trading.
With U.S. economic data performing "not as strong as expected," the market currently expects the U.S. economy to fall into at least a mild recession next year. Julian Phillips ( ), founder and writer of the gold price website r, said:
The United States cannot afford even a mild recession. Of course, the Fed cannot afford to raise rates before a recession. If the U.S. economy is headed for recession, it is a safe bet that so are other developed countries, and the recession will be much deeper than that of the United States. &r
A strong review of India’s gold purchase market Reuters reported on Wednesday that according to an official from the Indian Finance Ministry, the Indian government has levied a 0% tax on gold based on the current taxation status of goods and services. As Diwali, India's traditional festival, approaches, Indians generally believe that buying gold at this time is auspicious, which is also a good support for gold prices, and gold sales may reach a year high. Moreover, after Diwali, the important wedding season in India will usher in.
An analysis report by an Indian research company pointed out that 10% of the total expenditure on traditional Indian weddings is used to purchase gold, so the wedding gold market in India will reach 100 million US dollars. Additionally, India is set to have its best monsoon season in three years, which is undoubtedly good news as heavy rains will wash away fears of another drought. It is reported that farmers in India account for 1/2 of the country's gold consumption. However, the introduction of tax policies may have an adverse impact on the market.
The gold price outlook is promising. Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, said in an interview on Wednesday that the recent rise in gold and silver to pre-Brexit levels is due to the return of market risk aversion. It is expected that by the end of this year and early next year , risk aversion will return to the market, so the price of gold is expected to rise to the average price of US dollars per ounce next year. What will affect the fundamentals of gold in the future will still be the gold demand in China and India, or the gold production of gold mines.
The third and final debate before the election between U.S. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Trump will be held on Thursday morning, Beijing time. The uncertainty caused by this has provided gold with a Some support. In addition, recently released data showed signs of rising inflation in the United States and overseas, which also supported gold prices this week.
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