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U.S. economic data has improved
br/>. From the perspective of the first half of this year, the economic data of the United States have divided into two camps: employment, consumption and inflation data are stable, supporting the view of raising interest rates, but the performance of the corporate sector is worrying. Manufacturing orders and industrial output data are not satisfactory. It also hindered the pace of interest rate hikes.
But since entering the second half of the year, U.S. economic data has shown new growth
: After unexpected contractions month after month, U.S. monthly retail sales rebounded, with single-month growth hitting a monthly high. At the same time, although the monthly growth in U.S. non-farm employment was slightly lower than expected, the increase in hourly wage growth and the improvement in the employment structure and investment recruitment indicate that the U.S. labor market has basically reached full employment, coupled with factors such as improved U.S. inflation, the month-on-month growth in the core price index has averaged year-on-year. higher than the previous value.
Therefore, in the short term, boosted by a series of catalysts, the U.S. dollar has re-entered the upward channel after adjustments in the first half of the year
In the long term, there is no fixed pattern between the trend of the U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rate. Economic improvement is more relevant, but the dollar's rise in this strong cycle may not exceed the previous rounds of commodities.