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Boosted by expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply by % in the month, but in the past week, As the situation in the U.S. presidential election changes, investors turn to the sidelines, and dollar bulls continue to retreat, putting the dollar index under pressure and falling. Analysts predict that the uncertainty about the outcome of the election will make investors more inclined to wait and see rather than continue to bet on the rise of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index may enter a rest period in the short term.
B Managing Director h wrote an article on Thursday (June 2) to analyze the trend of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve’s decision. The content is as follows
The US dollar was slightly higher after the Federal Reserve meeting. However, the outcome of the resolution has little impact on the market. The US dollar remains under pressure overall and is expected to decline further.
The dollar was slightly higher after the Fed meeting. However, the outcome of the resolution has little impact on the market. The US dollar remains under pressure overall and is expected to decline further.
The Federal Reserve stated that the current situation of raising interest rates in the United States has become stronger and inflation is rising, but it hopes to continue to wait and see before raising interest rates. Only two voters, Mester and George, favored raising interest rates. Rosengren, who originally supported raising interest rates, agreed with the majority of Fed officials and chose to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Fed's language is relatively optimistic, believing that employment growth is strong. It has eliminated the statement that inflation is expected to remain low in the near term and replaced it with medium-term inflation expectations that will rise to %. This indicates that even if non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, improved inflation expectations will be enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month. Although the Federal Reserve did not explicitly say that it will raise interest rates next month, its language is leaning toward a monthly rate hike. Fed fund futures showed that the probability of a monthly interest rate hike rose to % from % on Tuesday.
Unfortunately, the Fed's hawkish words are not enough to cause the dollar to bottom out, especially after the unexpectedly weak US D data. The number of employed people in the United States increased by only 0.000 people in month D, a decrease from 0.000 people in May. The data was not only weaker than expected but also hit a monthly low.
For some reasons, some economists think Friday's nonfarm payrolls will show a big jump. However, due to weakening market confidence in the U.S. economy and relatively weak D data, we believe that unless the employment component of the non-manufacturing index released this trading day jumps sharply, we do not think that strong U.S. economic growth or hawkish Fed language will be enough to Investors are ignoring political risk factors in the United States.
With only one trading day left before the U.S. election that the world is paying attention to, the approval ratings of Trump and Hillary are quite close. This means there will be uncertainty in the market, and going long the dollar will become particularly dangerous.
Data from the CICC Market Center showed that as of: Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was trading at ., down .%.
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