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Contact Person: Mr. Zhang Hunan Weide Investment Promotion, Hunan Weide
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The U.S. D growth rate in the third quarter reached .%, the fastest growth rate in a single quarter in the past two years. China’s economic data has recovered. Coupled with the recent general rise in commodity prices, it seems that demand has returned overnight, and the global economy We are on the track to recovery again.
With optimistic expectations of economic recovery, many people are looking forward to the market situation at the end of the year. They feel that the current economy is stable, prices are rising, and corporate profits are improving. It is a good time to eat meat and drink soup. Haitong Securities macro analyst Jiang Chao came out to pour cold water at an inappropriate time. He pointed out in a new article: The so-called economic recovery cannot be sustained at all, and the shadow of another economic recession has appeared. Caution is king
.
Jiang Chao pointed out that if we just look at the changes in the quarterly economic growth rate of the United States, the rebound in D growth rate in the third quarter is indeed beyond expectations, because the United States has only had a D growth rate of about % for three consecutive quarters, and In the third quarter of this year, it suddenly jumped to .%. But if you break down the composition of this .% D growth rate, you will find that the important consumption contribution is only .%, which is even lower than the average of .% in the past quarter. The recovery of D growth rate mainly depends on two other items, one is foreign trade and the other is investment.
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Contact Person: Mr. Zhang