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Contact person: Manager Zhang Hunan Weide Investment Promotion, Hunan Weide
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During the Arab Spring, Brent crude oil was higher than crude oil in US dollars, but the oil price base at that time was much higher than it is now. Meanwhile, the Brent premium in USD today suggests that investor risk appetite is more tilted towards Brent for the remainder of the month. This can be seen from the continuous surge in the number of open contracts in the oil market. The oil market is now dominated by short sellers. The open long and open short positions of M crude oil futures have increased from 10,000 contracts on January 1 to 10,000 contracts last week. Five million lots, up .% over the past two weeks.
However, the rise in open interest in the oil market was established as long positions were liquidated and a wave of new short positions emerged. I believe that investors now have a huge bearish bias towards the crude oil market. Additionally, massive bears have pushed the Relative Strength Index down to, clearly into oversold territory. Therefore, it would be a very risky move for investors to short oil prices at or below the U.S. dollar.
Overall, the next three weeks will be very exciting for the oil market. Later on Tuesday, Beijing time, the market will usher in the U.S. election, followed by the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on October 1. Therefore, these three weeks will affect the future development trend of the market.
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Contact person: Manager Zhang