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The last time the Fed raised interest rates was the first move away from the zero interest rate cycle. At that time, it was expected to raise interest rates four times so far. However, the Fed has changed its trajectory several times over the past year, and inflation has not accelerated as the Fed expected. . Sullivan, an analyst at a Reuters survey of companies that made accurate forecasts of the U.S. economy last year, said: "We will not be in a hurry to change our forecast for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its next meeting."
Chicago Fed's Evans previously said that unless there is a significant negative surprise, the Fed can be persuaded to delay raising interest rates. Sullivan also believes that after this month, if stock market selling is limited and the economy remains resilient, but Congress still cuts taxes significantly, then estimates that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy in the coming year must be raised, not lowered.
The pace of U.S. interest rate hikes is far lower than the Fed expected last year, when most Feds believed they would raise interest rates four times a year. Williams, the San Francisco Fed, said the Fed is raising interest rates less quickly than originally expected because most have changed their estimates of the neutral interest rate level this year. The neutral interest rate is now considered lower due to the impact of an aging population and slow productivity growth.
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Contact Person: Manager Zhang