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Half of the year has passed, and spot investment has risen for two consecutive quarters. The price of spot investment has increased by about % so far this year, which is the best performance in the first half of the year. The improvement in market sentiment has gradually stabilized, but this seems to be somewhat contradictory to the steady increase in the number of jobs in spot investment and the great results of economic recovery. However, the recent performance of spot investment has been eye-catching. After finding support at the level, it continued to rebound, broke through the resistance area and then regained the mark in one fell swoop, hitting a 13-week high for spot investment per ounce. The safe-haven demand triggered by the civil strife in Iraq is the main reason for the rise in spot investment, and the recent poor economic data of spot investment has also contributed to the rebound in gold prices.
In addition, the performance of gold has converged slightly this week, but its strength remains unchanged. After a slight reduction in positions on the day, gold once again exerted its strength, expanding its position by . tons to . tons, and the daily holdings were the same as the previous day.
Judging from the recent changes in positions, each position expansion amount is more than tons, while the position reduction amount is around . tons, which shows that the difference between institutional investors and retail investors differences of opinion. Obviously institutional investors are more firmly optimistic about the later trend of gold prices, while retail investors are wavering. From a performance perspective, the mid- to long-term gold price market pattern remains unchanged.
From the perspective of supply and demand, some precious metals research institutions and major industry traders predict that the total gold sales of major central banks will decline again this year. It may be reduced to the lowest level in many years, and official holders such as central banks will be more reluctant to sell gold reserves. This trend has been very obvious in recent years. In addition, gold production has continued to decline in recent years. The reduction in sales and the decline in production mean that the future of gold Supply may continue to exceed demand, which may provide long-term support for gold prices.
Can gold reach the thousand-yuan mark again in the near future? We think it's very unlikely. Looking back on the last clearance process, the price of gold went through a long period of adjustment before rising up to spot precious metals per ounce. Although the bad non-farm payrolls data instantly ignited the market's risk aversion, the price of gold soared, but it then encountered eight consecutive bad days. Gold fell out of favor for a time, and the journey was short-lived.
Judging from this, the thousand-yuan mark is a psychological mark rather than a technical mark. It requires the accumulation of market pessimism and the appropriate ignition of catalysts. But at present, these two None of the conditions are met.
From a technical point of view, there is pressure on the short-term gold price and support on the bottom. It will still maintain a wide range of shocks. The support area is spot precious metals/ounce, and the pressure is The area is spot precious metals/ounce.
The recent focus is on the financial summit to be held on October 1, and it is expected that there will be more questions about the role of spot precious metals as a global reserve currency.
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