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The supply and demand side of crude oil has improved recently, mainly in three aspects. Now falling
2. Saudi Arabia raised the official sales price of light crude oil in the United States and Europe in March, which also gave a certain boost to futures prices
3. In addition, the large influx of long funds has also given support to oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices will rise in the medium and long term. Maintaining a volatile upward trend, there is a need for adjustment in the short term, and downwards seeking support from the early trading intensive area.
Based on the above three points, we can roughly draw two conclusions. First, rising oil prices are an inevitable trend, and this situation is not short-term. Second, due to the injection of large amounts of funds, the international crude oil market is stable, so for Friends who invest in crude oil, based on these preliminary analyses, it is not difficult to come to the conclusion that this year is for oil and belongs to the black gold era.
The above is only a personal opinion, no publicity is allowed
Market Review
Last week, international oil prices surged and fell back, with crude oil hitting the US dollar as high as possible and crude oil approaching the US dollar, both hitting new highs since last month. Crude oil price differentials are currently around USD.
Crude Oil Market
OPEC crude supply increased to its highest level in more than two years in March as crude oil production from Iraq and Saudi Arabia hit or near record highs. A Reuters survey believes that although demand is expected to be strong in the second half of the year, supply will further exceed expected demand due to increased OPEC crude oil production. The daily output of OPEC crude oil in March was 10,000 barrels, an increase of 10,000 barrels from the revised monthly average daily production of 10,000 barrels. This means that the daily output of OPEC crude oil was 10,000 barrels higher than the upper limit specified in last year.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Energy showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 10,000 barrels last week, the first decline since March 2019. During the same period, U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 10,000 barrels, while crude oil processing increased by 10,000 barrels. U.S. crude oil production only decreased by barrels per day. However, U.S. daily crude oil production is still 10,000 barrels higher than the same period last year and 10,000 barrels higher than the same period two years ago. The closely watched U.S. crude oil inventory in Cushing decreased by barrels from the previous week.
The number of U.S. oil wells fell for a consecutive week, but this does not mean that crude oil production has decreased. In the week ending March 1, the number of oil wells drilled in the United States was the lowest since March 2019, and was one less than the previous week. There were fewer seats than during the peak period last year. During the same period, the number of natural gas wells in the United States decreased from the previous week. Among them, the number of offshore drilling rigs in the United States was 3, which was the same as the previous week and decreased compared with the same period last year. The number of all operating wells, including natural gas, was one less than the previous week and one less than the same period last year. The data fell below zero four weeks ago for the first time since January.
Operation Strategy
The supply and demand side of crude oil has improved recently. The growth rate of U.S. crude oil production has slowed down, and inventories have declined for the first time this year. Saudi Arabia’s increase in the official sales price of light crude oil in the United States and Europe in March has also had a negative impact on futures prices. In addition, the large influx of bull funds has also given support to oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will maintain a volatile upward trend in the medium and long term. There is a need for adjustment in the short term, and downward support will be sought from the early trading intensive area.
The above is only a personal opinion, no publicity is allowed
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