Is investment and trading on the crude oil exchange formal?

In the face of a structural analysis of the impact of news on crude oil prices, this article analyzes official speeches from three aspects: the interconnectedness of the oil market, the gold market, and the foreign exchange market, and their impact on geopolitics.
An official spoke
The speeches of officials from various countries are undoubtedly a major influence on the trend of gold prices, and will also indirectly affect the trend of crude oil. However, due to the official’s position and the weight of the speech, it has an impact on the market. The impact is also different
Among all officials, the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman has the greatest impact on the market. Although sometimes the Federal Reserve Chairman always adopts an ambiguous way of speaking, whenever he speaks, global trading investors Everyone is listening to his words and trying to analyze the deeper meaning of his words. Another important figure among U.S. officials is the Secretary of the Treasury. U.S. monetary policy is usually spoken by the Secretary of the Treasury. The speeches of EU officials are usually rarely recognized by the market. Perhaps the market has long been accustomed to the good wishes of EU officials for the economic prospects. On the contrary, the pessimism in their speeches resonates more with the market
Second Oil Market Gold The correlation and influence of the foreign exchange market
In many cases, the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have a great impact on oil prices. When the U.S. dollar exchange rate rises or falls sharply, it often drives crude oil (gold) to fall and rise. The rise of the euro will also drive the rise of crude oil (gold). Generally speaking, when the US dollar rises, crude oil (gold) falls, the US dollar falls, and crude oil (gold) rises. Synchronous situations cannot be ruled out, but such situations are very rare. If it occurs In such a situation, investors need to analyze it carefully and consider it carefully.
In the international foreign exchange market, the weakness of the U.S. dollar often drives up the price of oil and gold. This is because the fall of the U.S. dollar allows investors who use non-U.S. dollars as their standard currency to buy cheap gold in other currencies. It can also stimulate demand for gold, especially consumer demand for gold jewelry. For example, when the U.S. dollar depreciated against the Swiss franc in ~, the price of gold rose from U.S. dollars to U.S. dollars per ounce
Generally speaking, when the U.S. economic growth slows down and there are signs of recession, the U.S. dollar exchange rate falls, and the oil price and gold price are expected to rise. rising. On the contrary, if the U.S. dollar exchange rate rebounds, oil prices and gold prices will fall. This is because the decline in the U.S. dollar exchange rate is often related to inflation, which increases speculative demand in the market, thereby stimulating an increase in gold prices in the market. The U.S. government twice announced the devaluation of the U.S. dollar in 2008 and 2015. It was under the influence of factors such as the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar exchange rate and inflation that the price of gold in the international gold market rose to the highest level in history at the beginning of the year, that is, it exceeded the U.S. dollar/ ounce. Looking back at the history of the past thirty years, we can find that when the exchange rate of the US dollar against the currencies of other Western countries is strong, the price of gold in the international market will fall sharply. If the US dollar depreciates slightly, the price of gold will gradually rise
Three geopolitics
Historically, crude oil has been considered a form of insurance to prevent war and natural disasters. The continued political turmoil and wars in the international society will eventually affect crude oil production and reduce crude oil supply, causing oil prices to rise. Of course, there is also the phenomenon that due to political instability, a large number of investors abandon other investment tools and turn to crude oil (gold) as investment hedging, which expands demand and stimulates the continued rise of oil prices and gold prices. For example, the Second World War, the Middle East War in 2008, the Iranian Revolution in 2008, the Afghan War in 2016, the Iran-Contra incident in 2016 and the assassination of US President Ronald Reagan, the Gulf War, especially the terrorist incidents that occurred in the United States on 2016 The launch of the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan has caused the price of crude oil (gold) to rise sharply in a short period of time
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