Crude Oil Price Trend Budget Crude Oil Price Trend Expectation

Looking at the crude oil price trend, bargain hunting is always a highly risky behavior. However, Zhongxin Huiyin believes that overall, the situation in the second half of the year is still not optimistic. The trend of crude oil in the first half of the year directly affects the entire commodity. In the second half of the year, crude oil is less likely to continue its monthly decline, but the possibility of a major outbreak is also low. Referring to the performance of crude oil after its plunge in 2018, it is expected that crude oil may first fall and then rise in the second half of the year, with the fluctuation range roughly ranging from USD to USD. Crude oil price trend budget, the downward pressure on the economy and the imbalance between supply and demand will force commodities to continue to de-foam. The Golden Nine and Silver Ten may bring short-term positive effects, but the overall downward trend of the economy and market will not change. B or yin and yang in the second half of the year, B The average value, average increase and decrease, etc. will be significantly worse than the performance in the first half of the year.
The commodity market will be ready for growth in the second half of the year. According to the crude oil price trend budget, due to the continued development of the El Niño phenomenon, if the monthly intensity further strengthens, the probability of forming a moderate El Niño will increase. Global vegetable oil supply and demand will turn from loose to flat, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio will return to the equilibrium position of %~%, driving Soybean meal prices return.
In addition, the non-ferrous sector and the coal, coking and steel industry chain in the second half of the year are also considered worthy of redemption. According to the crude oil price trend budget, analysts believe that although the industry prosperity is not high, compared with other sectors, coal, coke, etc. have experienced long enough and deep enough adjustments. If there are policies or other favorable cooperation, there will be market opportunities in the second half of the year. Nonferrous commodities represented by copper and aluminum are still looking for a periodic bottom. For reference, there will still be a wave of speculation opportunities in the nonferrous market in the second half of this year, and the increase may exceed %.