Zhenjiang Commodity Trading Center Investment 12.16 Silver and Gold Comments Analysis of the Sharp Decline Last Night

The Russian central bank decided to raise the benchmark interest rate from % to % at an impromptu meeting after the Russian ruble recorded its largest fall of the year. The central bank said the decision, which will take effect from October 1, is aimed at stemming the depreciation of the ruble and curbing inflationary risks. The Central Bank of Russia issued an announcement on the morning of Tuesday (July 2) Beijing time that it would raise interest rates to curb the risk of ruble depreciation and inflation.
The move comes in response to Monday's 20% rise in USD/RUB, and the currency's 10% rise in USD/RUB since May, which fell 1% to 0% retracement support for the 2019/10 rally.
Russia has raised interest rates six times this year, and its previous investment of more than 100 million US dollars in foreign exchange reserves has failed to prevent the ruble from depreciating by 1%. The ruble is the world's worst-performing currency this year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin this month called for tough measures to crack down on foreign exchange speculators. The United States and its allies imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula in September.
The ruble fell below the ruble mark against the US dollar for the first time on Monday as oil prices fell to a five-and-a-half-year low, threatening the Russian economy.
Oil and natural gas are Russia's main sources of export revenue. At the same time, the United States has strengthened sanctions against Russia, which has also made the latter's economy worse. A bill to tighten sanctions is expected to be passed by the U.S. Congress on Friday.
The Russian government said this month that the economy of the world's largest energy exporter is expected to shrink by 20% in 2020, marking its first recession in 2020.
The U.S. dollar-denominated R stock index closed down 5% to a five-year low, and U.S. dollar bonds of Russian companies were sold off.
Mershi believes that expectations for a weaker ruble are strong and we will need to make a lot of efforts to reverse this trend. As the market reconsiders Russia's long-term prospects, this has largely led to capital outflows and people are starting to Taking into account the factors that oil prices have remained at low levels for a long time. Under these circumstances, even without sanctions, Russia does not look like a place where one should invest.
The Central Bank of Russia has spent nearly US$100 million to support the ruble this year, including more than US$100 million this month. This year the central bank raised its main lending rate by a percentage point in response to market turmoil caused by the Ukraine crisis.
The Russian Central Bank said on Monday that if the average crude oil price were US dollars per barrel, the Russian economy may shrink in the first quarter of next year, and the full-year contraction may be about %.
The central bank also stated in its monetary policy document that Russia may achieve its medium-term inflation target of 10% by the end of the year, but Russia will need to continue to tighten monetary policy next year to achieve this target.
Merstone expects capital outflows to reach US$1 billion next year, the same as this year’s estimate, and the bank may spend up to US$100 million next year to defend the ruble exchange rate. The ruble began to float freely a month ago, and Russia’s monthly budget revenue is % Derived from the oil and gas industry. While the ruble's depreciation helped offset the impact of falling government oil revenues, it also pushed inflation above % for the first time in years last month. Capital outflows from Russia this year are expected to be the worst in years.
Silver:
Judging from the daily chart, what caused the sharp decline in silver prices yesterday evening was the UAE's announcement that OPEC would not restrict production due to falling oil prices and opposed convening an emergency meeting to support oil prices. , Mo Shi said in yesterday's gold review that although the silver price is bullish, it cannot withstand the drag of crude oil, a good international teammate. In the evening, the long and short battles, the shorts won a big victory, and the b overall continued to shrink. The indicators in the attached picture , the red energy column shrinks sharply, and there are signs of forming a dead cross, so the market outlook needs to wait patiently.
Looking at the four-hour chart, the sharp drop in silver prices early last night prompted B to open up, ending a short-term volatile market. Silver prices broke through two major support points~, and the short trend is unstoppable. The indicator R in the attached picture continues, and the three-line dispersion continues. down.
Taken together, today we switch to long thinking and maintain the idea of short selling on rallies. Today we need to pay attention to the large range~
Operation suggestions: ~ Place short orders on the first line, stop loss at 1 point, and target ~ 1 point profit.
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