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.>The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting released last week and the recent intensive hawkish statements by Federal Reserve officials have made the market’s expected probability of the Federal Reserve’s monthly interest rate hike surge from % two weeks ago to nearly one-third. Deutsche Bank Chief Economist r said in a research report that although there is a negative feedback loop between the Fed's interest rate hikes and global market reactions, the factors that really determine whether the Fed takes action are still there. Why does China say that?
. > A stronger dollar could add pressure to the yuan and put further pressure on commodity prices, reviving key factors that led to a sharp tightening of financial conditions earlier this year. The report also said that if there are no shocks caused by China's markets in the coming months, which is obviously difficult to predict, a negative feedback loop that leads to tighter financial market conditions is unlikely to prevent the Fed from raising interest rates. Rising expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates also seem to have put pressure on China.
.> But this kind of hawkish rhetoric will eventually become a stumbling block to raising interest rates. After the signal of interest rate hike is released, interest rates begin to rise, and risk assets may come under pressure due to the strength of the US dollar. This will lead to a tightening of financial market conditions that will ultimately prevent or at least limit decisions to raise interest rates.
.> From the perspective of technical analysis, silver recorded a small positive on the daily line yesterday, ending the pattern of continuous negative. After a slight rise and rapid decline the day before yesterday, the silver price entered a volatile pattern yesterday. Yesterday, the day's move was extremely embarrassing and the closing line was below the moving average, which was constantly under pressure. The green kinetic energy, high volume, and operating indicators were neutral and strong. From the four-hour perspective, the silver price was hovering yesterday/near the moving average, finishing within a short cycle/crossing the golden cross. The red kinetic energy column slowly increases the volume and the indicator is weak.
.> On the whole, it is recommended to focus on the first-line pressure above the daily operation. This is also the support below the pressure on the daily chart, and operate in the range-high sell and low slag.
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.>The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 10,000 tons to 1.0 billion barrels in the week ending March 1. The drop was far greater than the 10,000-ton drop expected by analysts surveyed but lower than the 10,000-barrel drop announced by the American Petroleum Institute yesterday. After the data was released, oil prices fell briefly due to profit taking, but then fully recovered the decline and continued to rise. Regarding the crude oil inventory data released this time, it should be noted that this data is also affected by seasonal factors. U.S. crude oil inventories usually fell in the month of last year. U.S. crude oil inventories saw their largest decline of the year. The market continues to pay attention to next week's conference. Foreign media quoted two sources as saying that the Economic Committee did not discuss the issue of limiting crude oil production at the final preparatory meeting in Vienna before the semi-annual conference in Vienna on October 1, nor did it discuss potential candidates for the Secretary-General. Have a discussion
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