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Senior Emperor Financial Group Business manager Liu Jingwen said that the market currently widely expects the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year. The Group's Federal Watch Tool shows the market has a % chance of a rate hike in March, with the probability rising by % since Yellen and Fischer's speeches. In this case, gold's weakness will continue for several weeks, and gold prices may slide towards USD/oz before stabilizing. After entering the month, gold was under considerable pressure. Even if there is no interest rate increase every month, the probability of a monthly interest rate hike is very high. US federal interest rate fund futures have shown that the probability of a monthly interest rate hike is as high as %.
The big data this week is the monthly non-farm employment data and the unemployment rate, which will be released on Friday. The performance of the data will play an important decision-making role in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on January 1st. In the past three The jobs report last month was very strong. Analysts surveyed by foreign media predict that the monthly number of new jobs will be . Data from the U.S. Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed that hedge funds and financial managers increased their long positions in New York gold futures contracts during the week of March.
With the strong rebound in non-farm employment in the United States, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations have subsequently rebounded, and the US dollar has escaped from the lows of the year. In addition, as the dust of the British Brexit referendum has settled, the market's risk appetite has also recovered, and the panic index has dropped from .. after the Brexit referendum to a nearby low level. It is precisely because of the stabilization of the U.S. dollar and the reduction of safe-haven demand that gold's upward momentum has become insufficient since the monthly high of U.S. dollars per ounce, and it has entered a volatile consolidation to date.