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The major monthly reports that the market focused on last week and the informal meeting of Turkish oil producers were quite disappointing. The monthly reports basically indicate that global crude oil production is still reaching new highs, and the growth rate of demand is not satisfactory, making it difficult to achieve balance in the oil market in a short period of time. The meeting of oil-producing countries did not have a detailed discussion on the production freeze and reduction agreement, but once again resorted to the "procrastination trick" to postpone the discussion until the next meeting. Although there are many doubts about the prospect of C and Russia jointly reducing production, after all, hope still exists, the market is not overly pessimistic, and oil prices are still very resilient. Under the negative pressure of the US dollar, the closing line last week still held the position above the US dollar.
Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oil field, which has been idle for many years, has finally produced its first batch of oil and will soon be exported. Currently, the daily output of the oil field is 10,000 barrels per day. OPEC predicts that by January, the output of the Kashagan oil field will reach 10,000 barrels per day.
Data released by U.S. oil services company Baker Hughes (Br) showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 100% in the week ended January 1, 2020. The increase was recorded for the second week in a row, which was the largest increase since oil prices began to plummet in 2019. long cycle. The total number of active oil and natural gas drilling rigs in the United States increased by 1,000 rigs and decreased by 1,000 rigs compared with the same period last year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said early on Saturday morning Beijing time that "high-pressure" policies may be needed to fully recover the economy from the crisis. The crisis has suppressed output, thrown workers out of work and may have permanently damaged them. This further suggests that the Fed is inclined to let inflation continue to rise for some time. Before Yellen's speech, the market generally expected her speech to strengthen expectations of a rate hike at the end of the year. However, her speech during the day was unexpectedly less hawkish than expected, and the U.S. dollar index first declined and then rose. The U.S. dollar index once fell to . and then rebounded toward the mark. A stronger dollar weighed on oil prices.
Jin Yong’s analysis believes that whether it is the announcement of the number of drilling rigs or the Federal Reserve’s announcement of another interest rate hike, they will essentially lead to negative effects on oil prices. Although Venezuelan Oil Minister Pino gave a speech promising that OPEC will cut production in March. Crude oil rose slightly on the news. However, Jin Yong still holds a bearish view on the short term. Before the OPEC meeting reaches an agreement, any speech or promise will be empty talk. Everyone must understand the story of "Wolf is Coming", and the market has gradually tended to respond to such news. numbness. Therefore, Jin Yong makes a bold prediction here that crude oil will be negative this week.
At the same time, according to the current market trend, Yellen is unlikely to issue any major policy statement, and may discuss more about the Fed's policy tools. At the same time, it may send a message that interest rates may not change even in the longer term. will be as high as previously estimated. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen has always been steady in her speeches. With the U.S. election approaching, it is expected that Queen Yellen's words will still be on track. Although Yellen did not mention the issue of raising interest rates, this has sent the bond yield curve higher. In fact, some investors and traders are buying short-term bonds and selling long-term bonds because a monthly interest rate increase is still possible.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil Asphalt
From the daily line, the market is under pressure from the upper track of Bollinger, the indicator C in the attached picture deviates from the top, the red volume energy column begins to shrink, and the stochastic indicator R enters overbought Go and start turning your head downward. Judging from the four-hour trend chart, the Bollinger Bands are running upward and the opening continues to expand. The lower rail is relatively slow, the middle rail and the lower rail are running upward, and the line price is running on the upper rail, and is under pressure from the upper rail. The C indicator continues to extend upward above the zero axis, the red kinetic energy column is still increasing in volume, and the R indicator is gathering and turning downward. Based on other indicators, the market outlook is a short trend, and Chen Yanjing recommends falling back and going long.
Crude oil operation suggestions
, It is recommended to go long nearby, stop loss. USD, target. Nearby,
, It is recommended to go short nearby, stop loss. USD, target.. nearby.
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