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In many years of experience After large-scale bond purchases failed to pull Japan out of the quagmire of economic stagnation, the Bank of Japan decided last month to shift its policy focus from expanding the money supply to regulating interest rates. Most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current stimulus policy unchanged and evaluate a new regulatory framework for government bond yields at its policy meeting next week.
Analysts surveyed believe that the Bank of Japan under Haruhiko Kuroda will no longer increase stimulus. Only two of the 100 respondents expected the BOJ to take action at next week's meeting, with they expecting the negative interest rate on excess reserves held by commercial banks to be cut to .
When asked how the Bank of Japan might adjust its policy at its meeting next week or later, 30 respondents thought it would lower negative interest rates. The second most popular approach, backed by four analysts, is to adjust the target for the one-year JGB yield, currently at zero.
Two other analysts expect the Bank of Japan to expand purchases of Japan Real Estate Investment Trust (R), and one said it may increase purchases of exchange-traded funds. No analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will increase the pace of expansion of the monetary base or increase the scale of bond purchases.
The recent weakening of the yen has given the Bank of Japan some relief. Since the start of the month, the yen has fallen cumulatively against the US dollar, and is expected to post its largest monthly decline since the start of the month. The depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's large export companies, pushing the Nikkei index to rise this month. In addition, it will also increase the import price of goods and increase inflation.
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