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Consultation hotline QQ The power of monetary expansion has increased recently and the growth rate is close to the expected target for the whole year. It is expected that the growth rate may accelerate in the future. The central bank’s recently released second-quarter monetary policy implementation report (hereinafter referred to as the monetary report) stated.
When talking about the monetary policy ideas for the next stage, the currency report stated that it will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and pay more attention to appropriate tightness and timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning.
The currency report pointed out that China's economic structural adjustment may mean that the economy faces downward pressure in the short term. The effectiveness of monetary policy depends on both policy formulation and policy transmission. Both the credit channel and the interest rate channel have problems in the transmission of monetary policy.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (consumer price) continued the rebound trend last month, rising from .% to .% (industrial producer price), the year-on-year growth rate dropped from .% last month to . %.
The further expansion of the decline is due to the decline in international commodity prices, but it also reflects the increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy. Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macroeconomic research at Huachuang Securities, analyzed.
Zhong Zhengsheng believes that the impact of pork prices on the economy has begun to appear, but it is not enough to constitute a restriction on monetary policy. He judged that the increase in pork prices had slowed down due to a slight recovery in supply in March, but it still did not change the pig cycle. However, under the weak demand of the real economy, the year-on-year high at the end of the year was between .% and .%. The current overall macroeconomic environment does not support an excessive rise in the overall price level. In response to the increasingly obvious downward pressure on the economy, it is expected that fiscal policy may make substantial efforts in the third quarter, such as expanding the scale of debt replacement, increasing the deficit ratio, and intensifying the revitalization of fiscal stock funds.
The monetary report puts forward six major monetary policy ideas. First, comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to strengthen and improve macro-prudential management, optimize policy mix, maintain appropriate liquidity, and achieve reasonable growth in the scale of monetary credit and social financing. The second is to revitalize existing stocks, optimize increments, and support economic structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. The third is to further promote the marketization of interest rates and the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation, and improve the financial control mechanism. The fourth is to improve the financial market system and give full play to the role of the financial market in stabilizing economic growth, promoting economic structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, deepening reform and opening up, and preventing financial risks. The fifth is to deepen the reform of financial institutions and improve financial services by increasing supply and competition. Sixth, effectively prevent systemic financial risks and effectively maintain the stability of the financial system